[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 04 August 24 issued 2343 UT on 04 Aug 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Aug 5 09:43:34 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 AUGUST 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 05 AUGUST - 07 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Aug: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.5 0159UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.1 1001UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.4 1008UT possible lower European
M2.2 1515UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.0 2211UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Aug: 241/190
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Aug 06 Aug 07 Aug
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 240/189 240/189 240/189
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 04-Aug was R1. The largest
flare for the day was an M2.2 flare from region AR3780(S10E72,
beta-gamma). This is a new large region that is rotating onto
the solar disk and more spots may be following the already visible
on disk spots. On disk solar regions AR3772(S25W01, beta-gamma-delta)
shows a decline in its intermediate spots. The other on disk
region of note AR3774(S05E12, beta-gamma) is showing growth in
its trailer spots. Smaller region AR3775(N17E09,beta) shows development
in its leader spots. Another new moderately sized solar region
has rotated onto the disk over the northeast solar limb. Both
these new regions are showing activity. There are ten numbered
solar regions on the visible solar disk. Other regions are either
stable or in decay. Solar flare activity is expected to be at
R1-R2 over 05-07 Aug. No significantly Earth directed CMEs have
been observed. A narrow northwest directed CME was observed in
LASCO C2 imagery from 04/0736UT. At this stage this CME could
not be correlated with any on disk activity. S0 solar radiation
storm conditions were observed on UT day 04-Aug. S0 solar radiation
storm conditions are expected over 05-07 Aug. The solar wind
speed on UT day 04-Aug ranged from 322 to 400 km/s and is currently
at 400 km/s. The solar wind interplanetary magnetic (IMF) was
enhanced on 04-Aug. The north-south component of the IMF was
southward for a sustained interval 04/0100UT-1611UT. The cause
of this sustained period of southward IMF conditions is unclear,
perhaps a weak graze from a recent CME but no shock signature
was evident earlier in the UT day. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 21 nT and the north-south IMF component
range (Bz) was +12 to -17 nT. A weak shock was observed in the
solar wind at 04/2125UT. The IMF Bz was orientated northwards
post shock arrival. The IMF Bt remains enhanced at 21nT. Two
small isolated coronal holes are visible on the solar disk with
centre locations at N05E05 and N25E35.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Aug: G2
Estimated Indices 04 Aug : A K
Australian Region 27 23345633
Cocos Island 16 23233523
Darwin 23 23334633
Townsville 21 23344533
Learmonth 31 23355634
Alice Springs 25 23344633
Gingin 28 22345634
Canberra 27 23345633
Kennaook Cape Grim 40 13455743
Hobart 44 23456743
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Aug :
Macquarie Island 74 15668653
Casey 10 22223323
Mawson 27 45433345
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 29
Planetary 47
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 2212 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Aug 16 G0-G1
06 Aug 8 G0
07 Aug 8 G0
COMMENT: G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on 04-Aug. Planetary conditions briefly reached G3. In
the Antarctic region G4 conditions were observed at Macquarie
Island and G1 conditions were observed at Casey. The brief strong
geomagnetic storm activity was associated with a sustained period
of southward interplanetary magnetic field conditions. G0-G1
conditions, with the slight chance of an isolated G2 period early
in the UT day are expected on 05-Aug. G0 conditions are currently
expected for 06-07 Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Aug Normal Normal-poor Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Aug Normal Poor-normal Poor-fair
06 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions were normal to poor
on 04-Aug due to unexpected geomagnetic storm activity. Generally
fair to poor HF conditions are expected for middle latitudes
for the first half of 05-Aug, then improving. Normal HF conditions
are expected for 06-07 Aug. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Aug 162
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Depressed 15-20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 131
Aug 119
Sep 119
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Aug 90 Depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
06 Aug 130 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
07 Aug 130 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 84 was issued on
3 August and is current for 3-5 Aug. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 04-Aug were near predicted values to 25% enhanced
in the Australian region for most of the UT day. Southern Australian
region MUFs became depressed by 15-20% after local dawn following
overnight geomagnetic activity. Spread F was observed at Hobart
during local night hours. Scintillation was observed at Niue
and Weipa 04/0825-1210UT. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values for the northern Australian region and 15% depressed
for the southern Australian region. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C3.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Aug
Speed: 360 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 38900 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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