[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 03 August 24 issued 2330 UT on 03 Aug 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Aug 4 09:30:45 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 AUGUST 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 04 AUGUST - 06 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Aug: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0027UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.5 0459UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.5 0705UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.9 0730UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.8 1343UT possible lower European
M2.8 1654UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.9 1726UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M7.3 1839UT probable lower East Pacific/
North American
M5.4 1930UT probable lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Aug: 245/195
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Aug 05 Aug 06 Aug
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 245/195 240/189 230/180
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 03-Aug reached R2 due to an
M7.3 flare from solar region AR3775(N17E22, beta) and an M5.4
flare from the northeast limb at solar latitude N15. Several
solar regions produced R1-Minor flare activity with AR3770(N07W73,
beta) producing three M1 class flares and one M2 class flare.
Solar regions AR3777(S09E52, beta), AR3774(S05E24, beta) and
AR3766(S07W80, beta) each produced an M1 class flare. Regions
AR3770 and AR3766 are approaching the western solar limb. Solar
region AR3770 is showing some decline in its trailer spots whilst
AR3766 is too close to the solar limb for assessment. Solar region
AR3772(S25E10, beta-gamma-delta) has shown decay in its trailer
spots and growth in its leader spots. This is currently the largest
on disk region. The next largest region AR3774(S05E24, beta)
is showing some decay/redistribution in its trailer spots and
some new pots are emerging just to the south of this region.
Solar region AR3775 is showing both a mix of growth and decay.
Solar region AR3777 is growing. The M7.3 flare from AR3775 was
a short duration flare with only a weak solar radio burst signature.
However, some localised on disk plasma motion/diming is visible
to the south and west of this regions location in SDO193 imagery
from 03/1848UT. There are twelve numbered solar regions on the
visible solar disk. Other regions are either stable or in decay.
Two new solar regions are expected to rotate onto the solar disk
at solar latitude S12 and N15. No significant CMEs have been
observed up to 03/1912UT. Yesterdays 30 degree long solar filament
eruption did not appear to be followed by a CME. A small narrow
southwest CME was observed from 03/0200UT in LASCO C2 imagery
but the CME propagation could not be followed in difference imagery
and is considered insignificant. At this stage it does not appear
that a significant CME was associated with the M7.3 flare, though
there is currently a data gap from 03/1912-2212UT in the available
LASCO imagery. LASCO imagery will be checked as more images become
available. Solar activity is expected to be R1-R2 over 04-06
Aug. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT
day 03-Aug. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected
over 04-06 Aug. The solar wind on UT day 03-Aug was steady and
ranged from 338 to 387 km/s and is currently at 353 km/s. The
peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 nT
and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +6 to -7 nT.
The solar wind is expected to become mildly disturbed on 04-Aug
due to possible multiple weak CME impacts.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 03 Aug : A K
Australian Region 6 12113311
Cocos Island 4 12211111
Darwin 6 22113211
Townsville 8 23113312
Learmonth 7 12113312
Alice Springs 7 22113311
Gingin 7 12113322
Canberra 6 12023311
Kennaook Cape Grim 6 12023311
Hobart 6 12023311
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Aug :
Macquarie Island 12 01035401
Casey 6 23211112
Mawson 29 34222247
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 29
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 33222223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Aug 16 G0-G1
05 Aug 10 G0
06 Aug 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on 03-Aug. In the Antarctic region isolated periods of
G1 and G3 conditions were observed at Macquarie Island and Mawson.
G0-G1 conditions are expected on 04-Aug due to possible weak
CME arrivals. G0 conditions are currently expected for 05-06
Aug. No CME was observed following yesterdays filament eruption.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Aug Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
05 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions were generally fair
to normal on 03-Aug. Lower HF frequencies of radio communication
may have been mildly to moderately impacted at times during the
local day due to frequent flare activity. Generally fair to normal
HF conditions are expected 04-06 Aug, with mildly degraded HF
conditions possible for middle to high latitudes on 04-Aug during
local night hours. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Aug 151
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 131
Aug 119
Sep 119
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Aug 130 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
05 Aug 130 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
06 Aug 130 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 84 was issued on
3 August and is current for 3-5 Aug. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 03-Aug were near predicted values to 15% enhanced
in the Australian region. Spread F was observed at Hobart during
local night hours. Mild scintillation was observed at Darwin
and Weipa 03/1000-1400UT. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values to 15% enhanced. Mildly degraded HF conditions
may be experienced during local night hours on 04-Aug for the
southern Australian region. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C5.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Aug
Speed: 404 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 60700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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