[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 02 August 24 issued 2330 UT on 02 Aug 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Aug 3 09:30:46 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 AUGUST 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 03 AUGUST - 05 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Aug: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0201UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.0 0322UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.1 0358UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M7.4 0456UT probable lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.2 0917UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.2 1233UT possible lower European
M1.1 1350UT possible lower European
M1.5 1530UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Aug: 247/197
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Aug 04 Aug 05 Aug
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 245/195 245/195 240/189
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 02-Aug reached R2, due to an
M7.4 flare from behind the southwest solar limb at solar latitude
S16. This flare was associated with a large westward CME and
could be from solar region AR3768 which recently rotated off
disk. Solar region AR3772(S25E23, beta-gamma-delta) is currently
the largest region on the solar disk and produced two M1 class
flares. A number of other smaller regions contributed R1 class
flare activity. Solar region AR3773(S06W82, beta) produced two
M1 flares. This small region has now decayed. Solar region AR3765(S11W60,
beta-gamma) produced an R1 M2 and an R1 M1 flare. Solar region
AR3766(N10E23, beta) produced two R1 M1 flares. Solar region
AR3775(N17E35, beta-gamma-delta) produced an R1 M1 flare. Solar
regions AR3772 and AR3775 are growing. Solar region AR3774(SO5E37,
beta-gamm-delta) has shown redistribution in its trailer spots.
Solar region AR3765 and AR3767 are in decay. There are thirteen
numbered solar regions on the visible solar disk. Other regions
are either stable or in decay. A 30 degree long solar filament
located in the southwest solar quadrant with centre at S25W15
erupted during the interval 02/1738-1958UT, visible in SDO304
and GONG H-alpha imagery. Solar activity is expected to be R1-R2
over 03-05 Aug. No significantly Earth directed CMEs have been
observed up to 02/1912UT. LASCO coronagraph imagery will be checked
for any possible CME associated with the filament eruption. A
west directed CME was associated with the M7.4 and has been modelled
as an Earth miss. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed
on UT day 02-Aug. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected
over 03-05 Aug, with a chance for S1. The solar wind on UT day
02-Aug slowly declined in speed and ranged from 360 to 450 km/s
and is currently at 385km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south IMF component
range (Bz) was +6 to -5 nT. The solar wind is expected to be
near background levels on 03 Aug, before becoming mildly disturbed
on 04-Aug due to multiple weak CME impacts.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 02 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 22201112
Cocos Island 4 22211011
Darwin 5 32201112
Townsville 5 22211112
Learmonth 6 32201222
Alice Springs 4 22201112
Gingin 5 22201222
Canberra 3 22101102
Kennaook Cape Grim 4 22101212
Hobart 4 22101212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Aug :
Macquarie Island 4 11003211
Casey 7 23311122
Mawson 14 24421224
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 67 (Active)
Canberra 80 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 22 5542 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Aug 6 G0
04 Aug 14 G0-G1
05 Aug 16 G0-G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic region on 02-Aug. G0 geomagnetic conditions are
generally expected over 03-05 Aug. There is a chance for G1 conditions
on 04-Aug due to several weak CME arrivals. A solar filament
erupted on 02-Aug which may increase activity on 05-Aug, if an
associated CME is later confirmed.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Aug Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Aug Normal Normal Normal
04 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
05 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions were generally fair
to normal on 02-Aug. Lower HF frequencies of radio communication
may have been mildly to moderately impacted at times during the
local day due to frequent flare activity. Generally fair to normal
conditions are expected 03-04-Aug, with mildly degraded HF conditions
possible for middle to high latitudes 04-05 Aug during local
night hours. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Aug 146
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% enhanced.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 131
Aug 119
Sep 119
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Aug 130 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
04 Aug 130 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
05 Aug 130 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 02-Aug were
near predicted values to 15% enhanced in the Australian region.
A shortwave fadeout was observed 02/0425-0819UT impacting lower
HF frequencies. Spread F was observed at Hobart and Perth during
local night hours. Scintillation was observed at Niue 02/0829-0910UT.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15%
enhanced. Mildly degraded HF conditions may be experienced during
local night hours 04-05 Aug for the southern Australian region.
Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C6.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Aug
Speed: 426 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 34600 K Bz: 6 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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