[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 01 August 24 issued 2330 UT on 01 Aug 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Aug 2 09:30:43 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 AUGUST 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 02 AUGUST - 04 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Aug: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 31/2250UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.1 0054UT possible lower West Pacific
M6.0 0148UT probable lower West Pacific
M8.2 0709UT probable lower Mid East/Indian
M1.0 1615UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.6 1647UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.3 1729UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.2 2022UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.4 2308UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Aug: 234/184
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Aug 03 Aug 04 Aug
Activity R1-R3 R1-R3 R1-R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 235/185 230/180 220/170
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 01-Aug reached R2, with the
biggest flare of the day being M8 from AR3762 (S11W87, beta-gamma).
There were over ten M-class flares observed on 01-Aug, and the background
Xray flux was above M-class levels for much of the day. AR3762
and also AR3774 (S05E51, beta-gamma) contributed to the heightened
flux for most of the day with near-constant M-class Xray emissions.
There are currently thirteen numbered sunspots on the disk. AR3762
is nearing the limb and will be out of sight after today. AR3772
(S25E36, beta) and AR3774 have shown some minor growth over the
past day. The cluster of complex sunspots in the southwest appear
to be maturing and are expected to being decaying soon. Solar
activity is expected to be R1-R3 over 02-04 Aug.
CMEs were associated with some of the flare activity
from AR3762 and AR3772, however none of these events are
expected to be geoeffective. The CME associated with today's
M8 flare may have a passing influence on 04-Aug, but no significant
impact is expected.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 01-Aug.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 02-04 Aug,
with a chance for S1.
The solar wind environment was disturbed on UT day 01-Aug.
A CME arrival on 31-Jul carried into the day, and then at least
one other CME arrived at 1700 UT. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 12 nT and the north-south IMF component
range (Bz) was +11 to -9 nT. The earlier CME carried bouts of
southward Bz. The solar wind speed ranged from near 500 to 400
km/s and is currently near 450 km/s. The solar wind is expected
to decline to near background levels over 02-03 Aug, before becoming
disturbed on 04-Aug due to multiple weak CME impacts.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 01 Aug : A K
Australian Region 14 44333121
Cocos Island 12 44232121
Darwin 14 44333122
Townsville 14 44333122
Learmonth 17 54333221
Alice Springs 12 34333121
Gingin 10 43322121
Canberra 10 34322111
Kennaook Cape Grim 11 34323111
Hobart 10 34323011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Aug :
Macquarie Island 11 44323010
Casey 10 34322111
Mawson 30 65632210
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 24
Planetary 31
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 19 2121 3554
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Aug 12 G0, slight chance G1
03 Aug 6 G0
04 Aug 9 G0-G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 38 was issued on 31 July and
is current for 1-2 Aug. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region. G0-G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. Average planetary conditions reached
G1 due to a CME arrival from 31-Jul. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 02-03 Aug. There is a slight chance for G1
on 02-Aug due to waning CME effects, and then again on 04-Aug
due to several weak CME arrivals.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Aug Normal-fair Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Aug Normal Normal Normal
03 Aug Normal Normal Normal
04 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions were generally normal
in low and middle latitudes, but degraded at high latitudes.
Lower frequencies were likely unreliable on 01-Aug due to higher
than normal background Xray emisssions. HF radio communication
conditions are expected to be normal to mildly degraded over
02-04 Aug. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Aug 156
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 131
Aug 119
Sep 119
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Aug 135 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
03 Aug 130 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
04 Aug 125 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 83 was issued on
31 July and is current for 1-2 Aug. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 01-Aug were near predicted values to 20% enhanced
in the Australian region. Ionospheric conditions in Brisbane
were degraded during local night hours. Spread F and sporadic
E were observed in Hobart during local night hours. Scintillation
was observed in Niue from 0811 to 0833 UT. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values over 02-04 Aug, with depressions
of 10-15% possible. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C4.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Jul
Speed: 435 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 69200 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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