[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 31 July 24 issued 2330 UT on 31 Jul 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Aug 1 09:30:45 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 JULY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 01 AUGUST - 03 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jul: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.9 0150UT possible lower West Pacific
M4.8 0523UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M7.7 0646UT probable lower Mid East/Indian
M6.0 1305UT probable lower European
M1.4 1631UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M5.4 1837UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.2 2155UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.0 2250UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jul: 235/185
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Aug 02 Aug 03 Aug
Activity R1-R3 R1-R3 R1-R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 230/180 220/170 220/170
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 31-Jul was R2, with the largest
flare of the day being M7.6 from AR3768 (S16W67, beta). There
were a total of eight M-class flares today, two being R2. There
are a total of thirteen numbered sunspots on the solar disk.
AR3768 appears to be growing, but as it nears the western limb
our view is becoming obscured. AR3770 (N07W30, beta-delta) has
grown, and has two small delta spots. AR3772 (S25E50, beta) has
also grown in the past day. All other sunspot regions are either
stable or in decay, including the highly complex AR3766 (S07W39,
beta-gamma-delta). Solar activity is expected to be R1-R3 over
01-03 Aug.
Several CMEs were observed on UT day 31-Jul. A weak
asymmetrical partial halo may have been observed from 30/2348
UT. The source of this is not clear, but there is a slight chance
this may impact Earth on 04-Aug. No other CMEs today have any
potential Earth-directed components.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day
31-Jul. Mostly S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 01-03 Aug.
The solar wind on UT day 31-Aug began at background levels before
becoming disturbed at 1347 UT due to a CME arrival. The solar
wind speed reached a maximum of 505 km/s and is currently near 460 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 16 nT and the
north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +12 to -13 nT. The solar
wind environment is expected to continue to be disturbed over
01-02 Aug due to another predicted CME arrival, before returning to
near background levels by 03-Aug. Several of the recent forecasted
CME arrivals have been observed impacting the STEREO-A satellite,
suggesting narrow Earth misses from some.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 31 Jul : A K
Australian Region 10 22112343
Cocos Island 9 22112333
Darwin 10 32112333
Townsville 14 33213343
Learmonth 12 22213343
Alice Springs 11 22212343
Gingin 14 22212254
Canberra 8 12012243
Kennaook Cape Grim 9 12112243
Hobart 8 12012243
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Jul :
Macquarie Island 6 11012233
Casey 12 23312243
Mawson 16 13123345
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 16 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 21 4444 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Aug 14 G0-G1
02 Aug 8 G0
03 Aug 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctica regions on UT day 31-July, despite a planetary
period of G1 at the end of the UT da due to the arrival of a
CME. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be G0-G1 on 01-Aug,
and mostly G0 over 02-03 Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
02 Aug Normal Normal Normal
03 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 31-Jul were
generally normal to mildly degraded. HF radio communication conditions
are expected to be normal to mildly degraded over 01-02 Aug,
before returning to mostly normal by 03-Aug. Shortwave fadeouts
are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Jul 143
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 120
Jul 118
Aug 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Aug 125 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
02 Aug 130 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
03 Aug 135 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 80 was issued
on 28 July and is current for 31 Jul to 1 Aug. ASWFC SWF HF Communications
Warning 83 was issued on 31 July and is current for 1-2 Aug.
Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 31-Jul were mostly
near predicted values to 20% enhanced. Sporadic E was observed
in Townsville during local night hours. Spread F was observed
in Niue during local night hours. Conditions in Brisbane were
generally degraded. Scintillation was observed in Niue, Darwin
and Weipa from 0727 to 1250 UT. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted values over 01-03 Aug, with 10-15% depressions possible
for mid and high latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C3.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jul
Speed: 458 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 61300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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