[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 14 April 24 issued 2330 UT on 14 Apr 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 15 09:30:57 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 APRIL 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 15 APRIL - 17 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Apr: R0
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M4.3 0232UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Apr: 178/131
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Apr 16 Apr 17 Apr
Activity R0-R1,chance R2 R0-R1,chance R2 R0-R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 180/133 180/133
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 14-Apr was at the R1 level,
due to an impulsive M4.3 flare from AR3637 (S10E52, beta) at
14/0232UT. There are currently ten numbered sunspot regions on
the solar disk. AR3634 (N25W32, beta) showed spot development
and redistribution over the UT day, this region is the largest
active region on the solar disk. AR3641 (N16E22, beta) showed
signs of rapid growth and AR3635 (N19W07, beta) showed signs
of growth in its trailer spots. All other numbered regions are
either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at
R0-R1, with a chance of R2 levels over 15-17 Apr. Solar radiation
conditions were at the S0 level and are expected to remain at
this level over 15-17 Apr. No significantly geoeffective CMEs
were observed on 14-Apr. An east directed CME was observed associated
with the M4.3 flare but is not considered geoeffective. A CME
associated with a filament eruption on the western limb was also
observed at around 14/0518UT. Modelling suggests a chance of
a glancing impact at 17/2000UT (-/+ 12 hours), this impact is
not expected to be significant. An eruption on the disk was observed
from 14/1016UT at S20E40 in GOES SUVI and H-Alpha imagery, there
is no associated CME visible in currently available coronagraph
imagery. The solar wind speed increased slightly over UT day
14-Apr. Solar wind speed ranged from 320 to 400 km/s. The wind
speed is currently around 370 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +5 to -4 nT. A halo CME first observed on 12-Apr
is expected to impact in the first half of 15-Apr, producing
an increase in the solar wind speed. Solar wind speed is expected
to be at background levels until this impact occurs and to begin
to return to background levels over 16-17 Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Apr: G0
Estimated Indices 14 Apr : A K
Australian Region 3 21211001
Cocos Island 2 21210000
Darwin 3 21210002
Townsville 5 31211012
Learmonth 2 21211000
Alice Springs 2 11210002
Gingin 2 21211000
Canberra 2 11210002
Kennaook Cape Grim 2 11211001
Hobart 2 11211001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Apr :
Macquarie Island 0 00101000
Casey 5 22321001
Mawson 9 32200134
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 4 1200 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Apr 20 G0-G1
16 Apr 8 G0
17 Apr 10 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 13 was issued on 14 April
and is current for 14-15 Apr. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 14-Apr.
G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 15-Apr due to an
anticipated impact from a CME first observed on 12-Apr. G0 conditions
are expected on 16-17 Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
16 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 14-Apr were
mostly normal. HF radio propagation conditions are expected to
be mostly normal over 15-17 Apr, with the possibility of mildly
degraded conditions at mid to high latitudes on 15-Apr due to
anticipated geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Apr 118
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 120
Apr 114
May 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Apr 115 Near predicted monthly values
16 Apr 120 Near predicted monthly values
17 Apr 120 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 36 was issued on
14 April and is current for 15-17 Apr. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 14-Apr were near predicted
monthly values. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values over 15-17 Apr, with a chance of mild depressions in the
southern Australian region on 15-Apr due to anticipated geomagnetic
activity. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Apr
Speed: 396 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 59400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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