[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 15 April 24 issued 2330 UT on 15 Apr 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 16 09:30:58 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 APRIL 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 16 APRIL - 18 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Apr: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.7 0118UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.0 0732UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M2.3 0842UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.2 0932UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.1 1358UT possible lower European
M2.2 1417UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M4.0 1932UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Apr: 192/144
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Apr 17 Apr 18 Apr
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 190/143 190/143 190/143
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 15-Apr was at the R1 level,
due to an impulsive M4.0 flare from AR3639 (N29E56, beta) at
15/1932UT. There are currently ten numbered sunspot regions on
the solar disk. AR3639 is the largest and most magnetically complex
region, producing several M class flares over 15-Apr. AR3634
(N25W43, beta) is the second largest on the disk and also produced
M class flares. AR3643 (S12E59, beta) has shown signs of rapid
growth over UT day 15-Apr. AR3637 (S10E39, beta), AR3638 (S16E46,
beta) and AR3642 (N15W05, beta) also showed signs of growth.
All other numbered regions are either stable or in decay. Solar
activity is expected to be at R0-R1, with a chance of R2 levels
over 16-18 Apr. Solar radiation conditions were at the S0 level
and are expected to remain at this level over 16-18 Apr. No geoeffective
CMEs were observed on 15-Apr. The solar wind speed increased
slightly over UT day 15-Apr, partly due to a step increase observed
at 15/1729UT likely associated with the arrival of a halo CME
first observed on UT day 12-Apr. Solar wind speed ranged from
315 to 405 km/s. The wind speed is currently around 355 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to -9
nT. An increase in Bt and sustained periods of negative Bz were
observed following the CME arrival. A CME observed on 14-Apr
may cause enhanced solar wind conditions due to possible glancing
impact late on 17-Apr, this impact is not expected to be significant.
Solar wind speed is expected to remain near background levels
over 16-18 Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Apr: G0
Estimated Indices 15 Apr : A K
Australian Region 5 22110222
Cocos Island 3 11110121
Darwin 5 22110222
Townsville 6 22110223
Learmonth 5 22110231
Alice Springs 5 22110222
Gingin 5 22110222
Canberra 3 21000122
Kennaook Cape Grim 3 12000222
Hobart 2 11000122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Apr :
Macquarie Island 2 10000122
Casey 6 23210222
Mawson 19 43211255
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1011 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Apr 8 G0
17 Apr 8 G0
18 Apr 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 15-Apr. Isolated periods of G1 were observed
in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
on 16-18 Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 15-Apr were
mostly normal. HF radio propagation conditions are expected to
be mostly normal over 16-18 Apr. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Apr 119
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 120
Apr 114
May 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Apr 120 Near predicted monthly values
17 Apr 120 Near predicted monthly values
18 Apr 120 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 36 was issued on
14 April and is current for 15-17 Apr. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 15-Apr were near predicted
monthly values. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values over 16-18 Apr. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Apr
Speed: 364 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 70200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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