[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 13 April 24 issued 2330 UT on 13 Apr 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 14 09:30:54 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 APRIL 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 14 APRIL - 16 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Apr: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.4 0502UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Apr: 161/115
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Apr 15 Apr 16 Apr
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 163/117 165/119 165/119
COMMENT:
Solar activity on UT day 13-Apr was at the R1 level, due to an M2.4 flare at
13/0502UT.
There are currently seven numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk and two
unnumbered
regions. AR3634 (N25W18, beta) showed spot development over the UT day, this
region is
the largest active region on the solar disk and produced the sole R1 level flare
on 13-Apr.
All other numbered regions are either stable or in decay. An unnumbered region
has developed
on the solar disk at around N10E28 with beta magnetic complexity. Another
unnumbered region
has rotated onto the disk at around N28E75 with alpha magnetic complexity.
Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 14-16 Apr.
Solar radiation conditions were at the S0 level and are expected to remain at
this level
over 14-16 Apr.
No geoeffective CMEs were observed on 13-Apr. An eruption on the disk was
observed from
13/1456UT at around N23E10 in SDO, GOES SUVI and H-Alpha imagery, however not
much material
appears to have left the surface and there is no associated CME in available
coronagraph
imagery. A southeast directed CME is visible in SOHO and GOES-SUVI imagery from
13/2136UT.
This CME is associated with coronal movement behind the southeast limb from
13/2116UT
visible in GOES SUVI imagery. This CME is not considered geoeffective.
The solar wind speed on UT day 13-Apr was in decline and ranged between from 457
to 312 km/s.
The wind speed is currently around 320 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength
(IMF, Bt) was 5 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +4 to -4 nT.
A halo CME first observed on 12-Apr is expected to impact late on 14-Apr or in
the first half
of 15-Apr, producing an increase in the solar wind speed. Solar wind speed is
expected to be
at background levels until this impact occurs and be slightly in decline on
16-Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Apr: G0
Estimated Indices 13 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 12100001
Cocos Island 1 12100000
Darwin 2 21100002
Townsville 4 22200112
Learmonth 2 11110101
Alice Springs 2 12100002
Gingin 1 12100000
Canberra 1 12000001
Kennaook Cape Grim 2 12100101
Hobart 2 12100001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Apr :
Macquarie Island 0 11000000
Casey 6 33310011
Mawson 4 23101110
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 4 1200 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Apr 12 G0, chance of G1
15 Apr 20 G1
16 Apr 8 G0
COMMENT:
G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 13-Apr.
G0 geomagnetic conditions, with a chance of G1 late in the
day are expected on 14-Apr and G1 conditions are expected on
15-Apr due to an anticipated impact from a CME first observed
on 12-Apr. G0 conditions are expected on 16-Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
16 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT:
HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 13-Apr were mostly normal.
HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be mostly normal over
14-16 Apr, with the possibility of mildly degraded conditions at mid
to high latitudes on 15-Apr due to anticipated geomagnetic activity.
Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Apr 116
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 120
Apr 114
May 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Apr 120 Near predicted monthly values
15 Apr 115 Near predicted monthly values
16 Apr 120 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT:
ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 35 was issued on 11 April and
is current for 12-14 Apr.
Maximum usable frequencies in the Australian region on UT day 13-Apr were
near predicted monthly values, with some enhancements of up to 20% observed
in the northern Australian region during local night.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 14-16 Apr, with
a chance of mild depressions in the southern Australian region on 15-Apr
due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Apr
Speed: 413 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 102000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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