[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 12 April 24 issued 2331 UT on 12 Apr 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 13 09:31:04 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 APRIL 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 13 APRIL - 15 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Apr: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Apr: 152/107
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Apr 14 Apr 15 Apr
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 154/109 156/110 158/112
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 12-Apr was R0, with no significant
solar flares. There are currently five numbered sunspots on the
solar disk. AR3634 (N25W04, beta) and AR3633 (S10W10, alpha)
have shown some minor growth, particularly in their trailer spots,
but otherwise all other sunspots are either stable or in decay.
Solar activity is expected to be R0-R1 over 13-15 Apr with a slight
chance for R2.
The M5 flare event that occurred from 11/1706 UT has been reassessed
and found to be associated with a large eastern directed CME.
This CME is not expected to be geoeffective. A small filament
erupted near S20W20 from 12/0040 UT and was associated with a
weak and diffuse halo CME that can be seen in SOHO difference
imagery. This CME may arrive either late 14-Apr or else early
15-Apr. Several small CME eruptions were observed off the eastern
solar limb throughout the day, possibly associated with a complex
magnetic structure behind the limb. No other noteworthy CMEs
were observed on 12-Apr.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on 12-Apr. S0
solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 13-15 Apr.
The solar wind environment on UT day 12-Apr was near background
levels. The solar wind speed was steady and ranged between near 400-450 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 5 nT and
the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +4 to -4 nT. There
is a small coronal hole currently near S30W30 that may enhance the
solar wind speed from 14-Apr, although this feature may be too far
south to impact Earth. The solar wind speed may also become mildly
enhanced on 15-Apr due to a weak CME impact. Otherwise, the solar
wind speed is expected to be at background levels over 13-15 Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Apr: G0
Estimated Indices 12 Apr : A K
Australian Region 3 22200001
Cocos Island 3 22210000
Darwin 3 22200001
Townsville 4 22201012
Learmonth 3 22200001
Alice Springs 3 22200001
Gingin 3 22200001
Canberra 2 12100001
Kennaook Cape Grim 2 02210001
Hobart 3 12210011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Apr :
Macquarie Island 1 01010011
Casey 7 24320101
Mawson 7 43311000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 4 2201 1102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Apr 6 G0
14 Apr 8 G0, chance G1
15 Apr 12 G0, chance G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 12-Apr. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected on 13-Apr. There is a chance for G1 geomagnetic
conditions on either late 14-Apr or else early 15-Apr due to
a possible weak CME impact.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Apr Normal Normal Normal
14 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 12-Apr were
generally normal. HF radio propagation conditions are expected
to be mostly normal over 13-15 Apr, with the possibility of mildly
degraded conditions at high to mid latutdes on 15-Apr due to
a possible weak CME impact.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Apr 125
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 120
Apr 114
May 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Apr 120 Near predicted monthly values
14 Apr 120 Near predicted monthly values
15 Apr 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 35 was issued on
11 April and is current for 12-14 Apr. Maximum usable frequencies
in the Australian region on UT day 12-Apr were near predicted
monthly values to 15% enhanced. Sporadic-E was observed in Hobart
and Norfolk Island during local night hours. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values over 13-15 Apr.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Apr
Speed: 445 km/sec Density: 6.1 p/cc Temp: 166000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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