[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 11 April 24 issued 2330 UT on 11 Apr 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 12 09:30:54 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 APRIL 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 12 APRIL - 14 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Apr: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M5.4 1706UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Apr: 144/98
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Apr 13 Apr 14 Apr
Activity R0-R1,chance R2 R0-R1,chance R2 R0-R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 148/102 150/105 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 11-Apr was at the R2 level,
with one M5.4 flare observed from over the north eastern limb.
This flare is likely associated with returning ex-region AR3514
(N17). The GOES X-Ray flux remains elevated above background
levels due to ongoing activity from this region. There are currently
five numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3634 (N27E15,
beta) and AR 3635 (N19E35, beta) have shown some rapid development,
all other sunspots are stable or showing signs of decay. Solar
activity is expected to be R0-R1, with a chance of R2 for 12-14
Apr, due to the return of ex-regions AR3614 and AR3615 over this
period. A filament eruption near AR3634 was observed at around
11/0548 UT resulting in an east directed CME, which was assessed
to be non geo-effective. A faint partial halo CME was observed
in SOHO imagery originating on the eastern limb at 11/1712 UT,
this CME has been assessed to be non geo-effective. No other
CMEs were observed on 11-Apr. S0 solar radiation storm conditions
were observed on 11-Apr. S0 solar radiation storm conditions
are expected over 12-14 Apr. The solar wind on UT day 11-Apr
was steady and ranged between 410-510 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component
range (Bz) was +6 to -6 nT. The solar wind speed is mildly enhanced
due to a long and thing coronal hole in the southwest solar quadrant.
A small coronal hole in the southern hemisphere, which has just
crossed the central meridian may contribute to increased solar
wind speed over 12-14 Apr. As a result, solar wind speed is expected
to remain slightly elevated over 12-14 Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Apr: G0
Estimated Indices 11 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 22100001
Cocos Island 2 22110000
Darwin 2 21101002
Townsville 3 21101012
Learmonth 3 22110101
Alice Springs 2 21100002
Gingin 2 22100001
Canberra 2 22000001
Kennaook Cape Grim 2 22000001
Hobart 2 22100001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Apr :
Macquarie Island 1 21000000
Casey 11 34421112
Mawson 5 33211000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 3112 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Apr 6 G0
13 Apr 6 G0
14 Apr 10 G0
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian and Antarctica
regions on UT day 11-Apr were G0. G0 geomagnetic conditions are
expected over 12-14 Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Apr Normal Normal Normal
13 Apr Normal Normal Normal
14 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were generally normal
on 11-Apr with mildly degraded conditions in high latitudes.
HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be mostly normal
over 11-13 Apr. Short-wave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Apr 117
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 120
Apr 114
May 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Apr 115 Near predicted monthly values
13 Apr 115 Near predicted monthly values
14 Apr 115 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 35 was issued on
11 April and is current for 12-14 Apr. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 11-Apr were mostly near predicted monthly values.
Periods of sporadic-E were observed at Townsville, Perth, Canberra,
Learmonth and Niue during local night hours. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values over 12-14 Apr. Short-wave
fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Apr
Speed: 440 km/sec Density: 6.1 p/cc Temp: 176000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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