[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 10 April 24 issued 2331 UT on 10 Apr 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 11 09:31:06 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 APRIL 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 11 APRIL - 13 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Apr: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Apr: 131/85
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Apr 12 Apr 13 Apr
Activity Low R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1
Fadeouts None expected Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 132/86 140/94 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 10-Apr was R0, with no significant
solar flares. There are currently four numbered sunspot regions
on the solar disk. AR3634 (N27E28, alpha) has shown some minor
change in its spot distribution, but otherwise all the other
sunspots are stable and mostly unremarkable. Solar activity is
expected to be predominantly R0 over 11-13 Apr, although ex-region
AR3615 can be seen returning on the eastern limb and may increase
solar activity to R1.
A filament near AR3628 became unstable by 10/0236 UT and may have
partially lifted off by around 10/2200 UT, although no CME has been
observed in association with this event at this stage. A slow CME
can be first seen at 10/1412 UT from the northeast limb, but is not
expected to be geoeffective. No other CMEs were seen on 10-Apr.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on 10-Apr.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 11-13 Apr.
The solar wind on UT day 10-Apr was generally stable and
ranged between 400-470 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south IMF
component range (Bz) was +7 to -6 nT. The solar wind is mildly
enhanced due to a long and thing coronal hole in the southwest
solar quadrant. This may persist over 11-12 Apr, but the solar
wind environment is expected to be at background
levels by 13-Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Apr: G0
Estimated Indices 10 Apr : A K
Australian Region 5 22212211
Cocos Island 3 22110210
Darwin 7 32212212
Townsville 6 22212222
Learmonth 5 22211221
Alice Springs 6 22212212
Gingin 6 12211321
Canberra 6 22122212
Kennaook Cape Grim 6 22122222
Hobart 5 22122211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Apr :
Macquarie Island 6 11131311
Casey 12 34331222
Mawson 11 23322332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10 0233 3213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Apr 8 G0
12 Apr 6 G0
13 Apr 6 G0
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian and Antarctica
regions on UT day 10-Apr were G0. G0 geomagnetic conditions are
expected over 11-13 Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Apr Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Apr Normal Normal Normal
12 Apr Normal Normal Normal
13 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were generally normal
on 10-Apr with mildly degraded conditions in high latitudes.
HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be mostly normal
over 11-13 Apr.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Apr 117
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 120
Apr 114
May 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Apr 115 Near predicted monthly values
12 Apr 115 Near predicted monthly values
13 Apr 115 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 10-Apr were
mostly near predicted monthly values. Brief sporadic-E was observed
at Norfolk Island and Brisbane during local dawn hours. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 11-13 Apr.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Apr
Speed: 414 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 107000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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