[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 09 April 24 issued 2330 UT on 09 Apr 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 10 09:30:56 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 APRIL 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 10 APRIL - 12 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Apr: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Apr: 124/77
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Apr 11 Apr 12 Apr
Activity R0 R0 R0-R1
Fadeouts None expected None expected Possible
10.7cm/SSN 122/75 140/94 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 09-Apr was at the R0 level,
with no significant flaring activity. The X-ray flux has mostly
remained at the B-class level. There are currently five numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3628 (N08W11, beta)
and AR3633 (S10E32, beta) are the most magnetically complex regions,
and have both shown minor development in their trailer spots.
All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar
activity is expected to be at the R0 level over 10-11 Apr, and
at R0-R1 levels on 12-Apr due to the anticipated return of old
region AR3615, which produced significant flaring activity on
its previous traverse of the solar disk. No Earth-directed CMEs
have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 09-Apr was
mostly stable, ranging from 350 to 450 km/s and is currently
near 440 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+7 to -8 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain near
background levels over 10-12 Apr, with a mild increase possible
due to a thin, elongated coronal hole in the southwest quadrant.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Apr: G0
Estimated Indices 09 Apr : A K
Australian Region 5 11222112
Cocos Island 4 12211111
Darwin 5 12222112
Townsville 7 11323122
Learmonth 5 12221122
Alice Springs 5 11222112
Gingin 6 01322122
Canberra 4 01212112
Kennaook Cape Grim 5 01223112
Hobart 5 01223112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Apr :
Macquarie Island 9 01344101
Casey 12 24412123
Mawson 16 14322253
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 2332 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Apr 10 G0
11 Apr 8 G0
12 Apr 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in both the
Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 09-Apr, with an isolated
period of G1 observed at Mawson late in the UT day. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 10-12 Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 09-Apr were
mostly normal. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over
10-12 Apr.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Apr 111
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 120
Apr 114
May 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Apr 115 Near predicted monthly values
11 Apr 115 Near predicted monthly values
12 Apr 115 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 09-Apr were
near predicted monthly values in the Australian region, with
a slight depression observed in the Northern Australian Region
during local night time. Sporadic E was observed at Townsville,
Brisbane, Canberra and Perth during local night hours. MUFs are
expected to be near predicted monthly values over 10-12 Apr.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Apr
Speed: 374 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 58300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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