[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 08 April 24 issued 2330 UT on 08 Apr 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 9 09:30:51 EST 2024


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 APRIL 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 09 APRIL - 11 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Apr:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Apr: 125/78


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Apr             10 Apr             11 Apr
Activity     R0                 R0                 R0
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   128/81             126/79             140/94

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 08-Apr was at the R0 level, 
with no significant flaring activity. There are currently five 
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3633 (S10E44, 
beta) has shown some development in its trailer spot region, 
while all other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. 
Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level over 09-11 Apr, 
with the X-ray flux currently at the B-class level. Several CMEs 
were observed, although none are considered to be geoeffective. 
A filament eruption was observed in GONG H-alpha imagery from 
08/0300UT near S20W60, although no associated CME has been observed. 
The solar wind speed on UT day 08-Apr was mostly stable, ranging 
from 370 to 420 km/s and is currently near 370 km/s. The peak 
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the 
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to -7 nT. The solar 
wind speed is expected to remain near background levels over 
09-11 Apr, with a mild increase possible due to a thin, elongated 
coronal hole in the southwest quadrant.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Apr: G0

Estimated Indices 08 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   22220000
      Cocos Island         2   22110100
      Darwin               4   22220101
      Townsville           5   22320101
      Learmonth            4   32220100
      Alice Springs        3   22220000
      Gingin               3   22220000
      Canberra             3   22221000
      Kennaook Cape Grim   3   22221000
      Hobart               3   12221000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     7   12431100
      Casey                5   33220000
      Mawson              12   34421221

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   2201 2121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Apr    10    G0
10 Apr    10    G0
11 Apr     8    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in both the 
Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 08-Apr. G0 geomagnetic 
conditions are expected over 09-11 Apr.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
10 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
11 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 08-Apr were 
mostly normal. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 
09-11 Apr.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Apr   111

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      120
Apr      114
May      115

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Apr   115    Near predicted monthly values
10 Apr   105    Near predicted monthly values
11 Apr   105    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 08-Apr were 
near predicted monthly values in the Australian region, with 
a slight depression observed in the Northern Australian Region 
during local night time. Spread F was observed at Hobart during 
local night hours, and sporadic E was observed at Townsville, 
Brisbane, Canberra, Learmonth and Perth during local night hours. 
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 09-11 
Apr.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.4E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.5

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Apr
Speed: 411 km/sec  Density:    3.8 p/cc  Temp:    86300 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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