[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 08 April 24 issued 2330 UT on 08 Apr 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 9 09:30:51 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 APRIL 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 09 APRIL - 11 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Apr: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Apr: 125/78
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Apr
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 128/81 126/79 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 08-Apr was at the R0 level,
with no significant flaring activity. There are currently five
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3633 (S10E44,
beta) has shown some development in its trailer spot region,
while all other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay.
Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level over 09-11 Apr,
with the X-ray flux currently at the B-class level. Several CMEs
were observed, although none are considered to be geoeffective.
A filament eruption was observed in GONG H-alpha imagery from
08/0300UT near S20W60, although no associated CME has been observed.
The solar wind speed on UT day 08-Apr was mostly stable, ranging
from 370 to 420 km/s and is currently near 370 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to -7 nT. The solar
wind speed is expected to remain near background levels over
09-11 Apr, with a mild increase possible due to a thin, elongated
coronal hole in the southwest quadrant.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Apr: G0
Estimated Indices 08 Apr : A K
Australian Region 3 22220000
Cocos Island 2 22110100
Darwin 4 22220101
Townsville 5 22320101
Learmonth 4 32220100
Alice Springs 3 22220000
Gingin 3 22220000
Canberra 3 22221000
Kennaook Cape Grim 3 22221000
Hobart 3 12221000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Apr :
Macquarie Island 7 12431100
Casey 5 33220000
Mawson 12 34421221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2201 2121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Apr 10 G0
10 Apr 10 G0
11 Apr 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in both the
Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 08-Apr. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 09-11 Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 08-Apr were
mostly normal. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over
09-11 Apr.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Apr 111
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 120
Apr 114
May 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Apr 115 Near predicted monthly values
10 Apr 105 Near predicted monthly values
11 Apr 105 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 08-Apr were
near predicted monthly values in the Australian region, with
a slight depression observed in the Northern Australian Region
during local night time. Spread F was observed at Hobart during
local night hours, and sporadic E was observed at Townsville,
Brisbane, Canberra, Learmonth and Perth during local night hours.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 09-11
Apr.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Apr
Speed: 411 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 86300 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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