[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 07 April 24 issued 2330 UT on 07 Apr 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 8 09:30:58 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 APRIL 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 08 APRIL - 10 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Apr: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Apr: 125/78
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 128/81 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 07-Apr was R0, with no solar
flares. There are currently five numbered sunspot regions on
the solar disk. AR3628 (N08E15, beta) is the largest and has
remained stable over the past day, although it has not produced
any solar activity. AR3632 (N21E14, alpha) and AR3633 (S10E58,
beta) have shown signs of slight development in the past day.
All other sunspots are either stable or in decay.
Solar activity is expected to be R0 over 08-10 Apr. Two north directed CMEs
were observed on UT day 07-Apr, these were assessed to be non-earth
directed. Solar radiation storm conditions on 07-Apr were S0.
Solar radiation storm conditions are expected to be S0 over 08-10 Apr.
The solar wind declined over UT day 07-Apr. The solar wind
speed ranged between 385-455 km/s and is currently near 400 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +5 to -5
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain near background
levels over UT day 08-Apr.
A long and thin coronal hole is developing
in the southern solar hemisphere (from S00 to S50) and is moving
towards a geoeffective location. This is a recurrent feature
and may enhance the solar wind speed by 09-Apr or 10-Apr
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Apr: G0
Estimated Indices 07 Apr : A K
Australian Region 5 12122221
Cocos Island 4 22111211
Darwin 4 22111121
Townsville 5 22112221
Learmonth 6 22122221
Alice Springs 4 12111221
Gingin 6 21122321
Canberra 5 12122221
Kennaook Cape Grim 5 12122220
Hobart 5 02122222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Apr :
Macquarie Island 5 12123210
Casey 15 44422322
Mawson 29 43222655
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9 3331 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Apr 8 G0
09 Apr 10 G0
10 Apr 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 07-Apr. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctica region, with some periods of G1 and
G2 at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 08-10
Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 07-Apr was
normal at low latitudes, with some degradations at mid and high
latitudes. HF radio conditions are expected to be mostly normal
over 08-10 Apr, with the possibility of further degradations
at high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Apr 114
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 120
Apr 114
May 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Apr 115 Near predicted monthly values
09 Apr 115 Near predicted monthly values
10 Apr 105 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 07-Apr were
near predicted monthly values in the Australian region, with
slight enhancement observed in the Northern Australian Region
during local night time. Sporadic E was observed in Brisbane
during local night time and some spread F was observed in Hobart,
also during local night time. Ionospheric conditions for HF radio
communication in the Australian region were generally good. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 08-10 Apr.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Apr
Speed: 448 km/sec Density: 7.4 p/cc Temp: 180000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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