[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 06 April 24 issued 2331 UT on 06 Apr 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 7 09:31:34 EST 2024


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 APRIL 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 07 APRIL - 09 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Apr:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Apr: 123/76


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Apr             08 Apr             09 Apr
Activity     R0v                R0                 R0
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             125/78             128/81

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 06-Apr was R0, with no solar 
flares. There are currently four numbered sunspot regions on 
the solar disk. AR3628 (N08E30, alpha) has shown some growth 
over the past day, although it has not produced any solar activity 
yet. All other sunspots are either stable or in decay. Solar 
activity is expected to be R0 over 07-09 Apr.

 No significant CMEs were observed on 06-Apr. A prominence may 
be slowly lifting off the disk in the northeast quadrant, which 
may eventually have an associated CME, although this is not 
expected to be geoeffective. 

Solar radiation storm conditions on 06-Apr were S0. Solar radiation 
storm conditions are expected to be S0 over 07-09 Apr.

The solar wind environment on UT day 06-Apr was steady. The solar wind 
speed ranged between 400-500 km/s and is currently near 450 km/s. 
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +5 to -6 
nT. A long and thin coronal hole is developing currently nearing 
the central meridian, from S00 to S40. This is a recurrent feature 
and may enhance the solar wind speed by 09-Apr or 10-Apr. Otherwise, 
the solar wind speed is expected to remain near background levels 
over 07-08 Apr.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Apr: G0

Estimated Indices 06 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22322211
      Cocos Island         5   22301210
      Darwin               6   22312211
      Townsville           7   22322212
      Learmonth            9   32322222
      Alice Springs        7   22322212
      Gingin               8   32322221
      Canberra             6   22222211
      Kennaook Cape Grim   7   20323211
      Hobart               9   23323211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Apr :
      Macquarie Island    10   13423220
      Casey               16   44432223
      Mawson              33   64433263

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             11   2333 3222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Apr     8    G0
08 Apr     8    G0
09 Apr     8    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 06-Apr. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were 
observed in the Antarctica region, with some periods of G2 at 
Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 07-09 Apr.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Apr      Normal         Normal         Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Apr      Normal         Normal         Fair
08 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 06-Apr was 
normal at low and middle latitudes, with some degradations at 
high latitudes. HF radio conditions are expected to be mostly 
normal over 07-09 Apr, with the possibility of further degradations 
at high latitudes.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Apr   115

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      120
Apr      114
May      115

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Apr   115    Near predicted monthly values
08 Apr   115    Near predicted monthly values
09 Apr   115    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 06-Apr were 
near predicted monthly values in the Australian region. Ionospheric 
conditions for HF radio communication in the Australian region 
were generally good. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly 
values over 07-09 Apr.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Apr
Speed: 424 km/sec  Density:    7.7 p/cc  Temp:   106000 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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