[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 06 April 24 issued 2331 UT on 06 Apr 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 7 09:31:34 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 APRIL 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 07 APRIL - 09 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Apr: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Apr: 123/76
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Apr 08 Apr 09 Apr
Activity R0v R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 128/81
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 06-Apr was R0, with no solar
flares. There are currently four numbered sunspot regions on
the solar disk. AR3628 (N08E30, alpha) has shown some growth
over the past day, although it has not produced any solar activity
yet. All other sunspots are either stable or in decay. Solar
activity is expected to be R0 over 07-09 Apr.
No significant CMEs were observed on 06-Apr. A prominence may
be slowly lifting off the disk in the northeast quadrant, which
may eventually have an associated CME, although this is not
expected to be geoeffective.
Solar radiation storm conditions on 06-Apr were S0. Solar radiation
storm conditions are expected to be S0 over 07-09 Apr.
The solar wind environment on UT day 06-Apr was steady. The solar wind
speed ranged between 400-500 km/s and is currently near 450 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +5 to -6
nT. A long and thin coronal hole is developing currently nearing
the central meridian, from S00 to S40. This is a recurrent feature
and may enhance the solar wind speed by 09-Apr or 10-Apr. Otherwise,
the solar wind speed is expected to remain near background levels
over 07-08 Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Apr: G0
Estimated Indices 06 Apr : A K
Australian Region 7 22322211
Cocos Island 5 22301210
Darwin 6 22312211
Townsville 7 22322212
Learmonth 9 32322222
Alice Springs 7 22322212
Gingin 8 32322221
Canberra 6 22222211
Kennaook Cape Grim 7 20323211
Hobart 9 23323211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Apr :
Macquarie Island 10 13423220
Casey 16 44432223
Mawson 33 64433263
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11 2333 3222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Apr 8 G0
08 Apr 8 G0
09 Apr 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 06-Apr. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctica region, with some periods of G2 at
Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 07-09 Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Apr Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Apr Normal Normal Fair
08 Apr Normal Normal Normal
09 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 06-Apr was
normal at low and middle latitudes, with some degradations at
high latitudes. HF radio conditions are expected to be mostly
normal over 07-09 Apr, with the possibility of further degradations
at high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Apr 115
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 120
Apr 114
May 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Apr 115 Near predicted monthly values
08 Apr 115 Near predicted monthly values
09 Apr 115 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 06-Apr were
near predicted monthly values in the Australian region. Ionospheric
conditions for HF radio communication in the Australian region
were generally good. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values over 07-09 Apr.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Apr
Speed: 424 km/sec Density: 7.7 p/cc Temp: 106000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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