[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 05 April 24 issued 2331 UT on 05 Apr 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 6 10:31:24 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 APRIL 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 06 APRIL - 08 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Apr: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Apr: 121/73
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Apr 07 Apr 08 Apr
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 122/75 122/75 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 05-Apr was R0, with no significant
solar flares. There are currently three numbered regions on the
solar disk, and one unnumbered region. AR3629 (N06, W24, beta)
and the unnumbered region (S10W30, beta) have shown growth over
the past 24 hours, but have remained quiet. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be R0 over 06-08 Apr.
Solar radiation storm conditions were S0 on 05-Apr. Solar
radiation storm conditions are expected to be S0 over 06-08 Apr.
A CME can be seen from 05/1753 UT in STEREO A imagery to
the southwest, although this event is considered
to be from a farside prominence and therefore not geoeffective.
No other CMEs were observed on 05-Apr.
The solar wind speed on UT day 05-Apr was steady and
ranged between 390 to 500km/s, and is currently near
400 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was +7 to -6 nT. The solar wind environment is expected to return
to background levels on 06-Apr as Earth exits the influence
from a small coronal hole. Solar wind conditions are expected
to be at background levels over 07-08 Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Apr: G0
Estimated Indices 05 Apr : A K
Australian Region 10 23233222
Cocos Island 6 23221220
Darwin 7 23222112
Townsville 10 23233222
Learmonth 9 23223222
Alice Springs 9 23233122
Gingin 10 22233232
Canberra 10 23233222
Kennaook Cape Grim 10 23233222
Hobart 11 23243212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Apr :
Macquarie Island 19 23355311
Casey 12 34323122
Mawson 25 34423355
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 7 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 33
Planetary 9 1122 3233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Apr 8 G0
07 Apr 5 G0
08 Apr 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 05-Apr. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in Antarctica, with some periods of G1 at Macquarie
Island. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 06-08 Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Apr Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Apr Normal Normal Normal
07 Apr Normal Normal Normal
08 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 05-Apr were
normal, with some degradations at high latitudes. Normal HF radio
communication conditions are expected over 06-08 Apr.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Apr 115
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 120
Apr 114
May 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Apr 120 Near predicted monthly values
07 Apr 120 Near predicted monthly values
08 Apr 120 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 05-Apr were
near predicted monthly values. Ionospheric conditions in the
Australian region were generally good. MUFs are expected to be
near predicted monthly values over 06-08 Apr.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Apr
Speed: 444 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 86600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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