[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 04 April 24 issued 2331 UT on 04 Apr 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 5 10:31:22 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 APRIL 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 05 APRIL - 07 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Apr: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Apr: 114/65
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Apr 06 Apr 07 Apr
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 115/66
COMMENT:
Solar activity on UT day 04-Apr was at the R0 level, with the X-Ray
flux below the C-class level for the entire day.
There are currently four numbered active regions visible on the solar
disk. Newly numbered region AR3629 (N06W10, beta) showed spot development
over the UT day, but remains small and magnetically simple. AR3628
(N06E59, alpha) is the largest active region on the solar disk, but
has very simple magnetic complexity. All other numbered active regions
are stable.
Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level over 05-07 Apr.
Solar radiation conditions were at the S0 level on 04-Apr and are
expected to remain at the S0 level over 05-07 Apr.
No geoeffective CMEs were observed on 04-Apr. A series of roughly 10
southwest directed CMEs was observed from 04/0125UT in SOHO and STEREO-A
imagery. There is no on disk activity associated with these CMEs and
they are not considered geoeffective. These CMEs may have been produced
by AR3615 which left the visible disk on 31-Mar, indicating that this
region likely remains very active.
The solar wind speed on UT day 04-Apr increased, ranging from 325 to
535 km/s and is currently near 450 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 11 nT and the north south IMF component
(Bz) range was +8 to -8 nT. The solar wind speed and IMF characteristics
are indicative of high speed wind stream effects, due to a coronal
hole in a geoeffective location.
The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated over 05-06 Apr
with a decline to background levels likely in the second half of 06-Apr
heading into 07-Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Apr: G0
Estimated Indices 04 Apr : A K
Australian Region 9 11332223
Cocos Island 6 11321222
Darwin 7 11322123
Townsville 9 11333123
Learmonth 9 11332223
Alice Springs 7 11322123
Gingin 7 11222223
Canberra 7 11233122
Kennaook Cape Grim 7 01233222
Hobart 7 01233222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Apr :
Macquarie Island 13 00154223
Casey 12 13432223
Mawson 30 12213656
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 5 2210 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Apr 12 G0, chance of G1
06 Apr 8 G0
07 Apr 5 G0
COMMENT:
G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian region on
UT day 04-Apr. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in the Antarctic
region, with G2 conditions observed at Mawson and an isolated period
of G1 observed at Macquarie Island.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 05-07 Apr, with a chance
of G1 on 05-Apr due to ongoing high speed wind stream effects from a
narrow western hemisphere coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT:
HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 04-Apr were mostly normal,
with periods of degradation at high latitudes.
Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 05-07 Apr, with a chance
of mildly degraded conditions at high latitudes over 05-06 Apr, due
to possible geomagnetic activity due to coronal hole high speed wind
stream effects.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Apr 104
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 120
Apr 114
May 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Apr 105 Near predicted monthly values
06 Apr 100 Near predicted monthly values
07 Apr 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT:
Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 04-Apr were near predicted
monthly values in the Australian region. Significant spread F was
observed at Hobart during local night hours.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 05-07 Apr,
with a chance of mild depressions in the southern Australian region over
05-06 Apr due to possible geomagnetic activity due to coronal hole high
speed wind stream effects.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Apr
Speed: 427 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 126000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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