[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 03 April 24 issued 2331 UT on 03 Apr 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 4 10:31:20 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 APRIL 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 04 APRIL - 06 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Apr: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Apr: 112/63
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Apr 05 Apr 06 Apr
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 112/63 114/65 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 03-Apr was at the R0 level,
with the X-Ray flux below the C-class level for the entire day.
There are currently four numbered active regions visible on the
solar disk and one unnumbered region. AR3626 (N11W57, beta) showed
spot development over the UT day, but remains small and magnetically
simple. All other numbered active regions are either stable or
in decay. An unnumbered region is present at N21W65. It is small
with alpha magnetic characteristics. Solar activity is expected
to be at the R0 level over 04-06 Apr. Solar radiation conditions
were at the S0 level on 03-Apr and are expected to be at the
S0 level over 04-06 Apr. No geoeffective CMEs were observed on
03-Apr. The solar wind speed on UT day 03-Apr was in decline,
ranging from 360 to 480 km/s and is currently near 360 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6
nT and the north south IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to -5
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain near background
levels until an increase late on 04-Apr or on 05-Apr due to high
speed wind stream effects from a narrow coronal hole in the western
hemisphere. The solar wind speed is expected to be moderate on
06-Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Apr: G0
Estimated Indices 03 Apr : A K
Australian Region 3 22112100
Cocos Island 2 12101100
Darwin 4 22112101
Townsville 4 22112101
Learmonth 4 22112201
Alice Springs 3 22102101
Gingin 3 22112100
Canberra 3 22111100
Kennaook Cape Grim 3 22112100
Hobart 3 12112100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Apr :
Macquarie Island 4 12122200
Casey 7 34212100
Mawson 15 54313211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 1113 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Apr 10 G0, slight chance of G1
05 Apr 14 G0, chance of G1
06 Apr 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 03-Apr. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of G1 at Mawson.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 04-06 Apr, with a
slight chance of G1 on 04-Apr and a chance of G1 on 05-Apr due
to high speed wind stream effects from a narrow western hemisphere
coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Apr Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Apr Normal Normal Fair
06 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 03-Apr were
mostly normal, with periods of degradation at high latitudes.
Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 04-06 Apr, with
a chance of mildly degraded conditions at high latitudes on 05-Apr
due to possible geomagnetic activity due to coronal hole high
speed wind stream effects.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Apr 108
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 120
Apr 114
May 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Apr 110 Near predicted monthly values
05 Apr 110 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
06 Apr 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 03-Apr were
near predicted monthly values in the Australian region. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 04-06 Apr,
with a chance of mild depressions in the southern Australian
region due to possible geomagnetic activity due to coronal hole
high speed wind stream effects.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Apr
Speed: 445 km/sec Density: 7.9 p/cc Temp: 216000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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