[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 02 April 24 issued 2331 UT on 02 Apr 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 3 10:31:29 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 APRIL 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 03 APRIL - 05 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Apr: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Apr: 113/64
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Apr 04 Apr 05 Apr
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 02-Apr was at the R0 level,
with no significant flaring activity. There are currently two
numbered active regions visible on the solar disk and two unnumbered
regions. AR3624 (N16E16, beta) is the most magnetically complex
region but has decayed over the UT day. Two unnumbered regions
are visible near N09E64 (alpha) and N08E87 (alpha), with both
appearing stable. All other active regions are either stable
or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level
over 03-05 Apr. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The
solar wind speed on UT day 02-Apr was mostly stable, ranging
from 410 to 480 km/s and is currently near 450 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the
north south IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to -5 nT. The solar
wind speed is expected to decline on 03-Apr, then increase over
04-05 Apr due to a narrow western hemisphere coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Apr: G0
Estimated Indices 02 Apr : A K
Australian Region 5 11131121
Cocos Island 3 11121120
Darwin 6 22132111
Townsville 5 11132111
Learmonth 5 11122221
Alice Springs 6 11132221
Gingin 5 21221221
Canberra 4 11131111
Kennaook Cape Grim 6 11141121
Hobart 7 11141221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Apr :
Macquarie Island 12 11162101
Casey 11 34322212
Mawson 10 32323222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 2331 1232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Apr 8 G0
04 Apr 12 G0, slight chance G1
05 Apr 14 G0, chance G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 02-Apr. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are
expected over 03-05 Apr, with a slight chance of G1 on 04-Apr
and a chance of G1 on 05-Apr due to coronal hole high speed wind
stream effects from a narrow western hemisphere coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 02-Apr were
mostly normal. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over
03-05 Apr.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Apr 119
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 120
Apr 114
May 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Apr 115 Near predicted monthly values
04 Apr 115 Near predicted monthly values
05 Apr 115 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 02-Apr were
near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced in the Australian
region. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
over 03-05 Apr.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Apr
Speed: 496 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 188000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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