[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 01 April 24 issued 2330 UT on 01 Apr 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 2 10:30:10 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 APRIL 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 02 APRIL - 04 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Apr: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.9 0132UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Apr: 125/78
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Apr 03 Apr 04 Apr
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 124/77 126/79 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 01-Apr was at the R1 level
due to an M3.9 flare at 01/0132UT from AR3615 (S13, now beyond
the western limb). There are currently three numbered active
regions visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered region.
AR3625 (N12W77, beta) is the largest active region and has exhibited
spot development over the UT day, particularly in its trailer
spot. An unnumbered region recently rotated over the eastern
limb near N09E78 (alpha) and is stable. All other active regions
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to
be at the R0 level over 02-04 Apr. Several CMEs were observed,
but none are considered geoeffective. The solar wind speed on
UT day 01-Apr was mostly stable with a mild declining trend,
ranging from 440 to 525 km/s and is currently near 440 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9
nT and the north south IMF component (Bz) range was +8 to -6
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to decline over 02-03 Apr,
then increase on 04-Apr due to a narrow western hemisphere coronal
hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Apr: G0
Estimated Indices 01 Apr : A K
Australian Region 7 23311121
Cocos Island 5 23301010
Darwin 6 13311111
Townsville 8 23312122
Learmonth 7 32321120
Alice Springs 5 22311110
Gingin 7 32311221
Canberra 7 23321111
Kennaook Cape Grim 6 2-321121
Hobart 7 23321121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Apr :
Macquarie Island 10 13522010
Casey 15 54322122
Mawson 21 35433243
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 3221 1123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Apr 8 G0
03 Apr 8 G0
04 Apr 12 G0, slight chance G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 01-Apr. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 02-04 Apr, with a slight chance of G1 on 04-Apr due to coronal
hole high speed wind stream effects from a narrow western hemisphere
coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 01-Apr were
mostly normal. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over
02-04 Apr.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Apr 118
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 120
Apr 114
May 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Apr 120 Near predicted monthly values
03 Apr 120 Near predicted monthly values
04 Apr 120 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 01-Apr were
near predicted monthly values in the Australian region. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 02-04 Apr.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Mar
Speed: 491 km/sec Density: 5.5 p/cc Temp: 184000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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