[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 31 March 24 issued 2330 UT on 31 Mar 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 1 10:30:59 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 MARCH 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 01 APRIL - 03 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Mar: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M9.4 30/2131UT probable lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Mar: 134/88
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Apr 02 Apr 03 Apr
Activity R1-R2, chance R3 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts Probable Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 125/78 125/78
COMMENT:
Solar activity on UT day 31-Mar was at the R1 level, due to the declining
tail from an M9.4 flare on 30-Mar. A C4.8 flare at 31/1410UT was the
largest flare to peak during 31-Mar.
There are currently four numbered active regions visible on the solar
disk and two unnumbered regions. AR3615 (S13W95, beta-gamma-delta) was
by far the most significant region on the solar disk in terms of size
and complexity and produced the largest flare of the UT day. This region
rotated off the visible disk over 31-Mar, however further significant
flaring from this region will likely still affect Earth on 01-Apr. All
other numbered active regions are either stable or in decay. An unnumbered
region has developed on the solar disk at around N12W63, with beta magnetic
characteristics. A further unnumbered region has developed at around
N11W18 with alpha magnetic complexity.
Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels on 01-Apr, with a chance
of R3. R0-R1 activity is expected over 02-03 Apr.
S0 solar proton conditions are expected over 01-03 Apr, with a chance
of S1 on 01-Apr due to the possibility of M-class flaring from AR3516,
off the western limb.
No geoeffective CMEs were observed on 31-Mar. A CME directed to the northeast
is visible from 30/2312UT in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery. This CME is associated
with an eruption visible at around N28E60 in SDO, GOES SUVI and H-Alpha
imagery. This CME is not currently considered geoeffective. Further analysis
is ongoing, however, due to the direction of the CME, this event will produce
a glancing impact at best.
The solar wind speed on UT day 31-Mar was moderately enhanced with a temporary
dip at around 31/1750UT followed by a further increase. The wind speed ranged
from 414 to 554 km/s and is currently near 500 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 12 nT and the north south IMF component (Bz)
range was +8 to -12 nT, although Bz was predominately positive throughout the
UT day.
Moderately enhanced solar wind conditions are expected over 01-03 Apr due to
a series of coronal holes in a geoeffective position or rotating towards a
geoeffective position. Temporary decreases and increases are likely throughout
the period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 31 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 22310102
Cocos Island 5 32211101
Darwin 4 21211102
Townsville 3 2121110-
Learmonth 6 32311101
Alice Springs 5 22310102
Gingin 5 32310001
Canberra 3 22210002
Kennaook Cape Grim 4 22300002
Hobart 4 22300002
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Mar :
Macquarie Island 2 21110001
Casey 15 45422101
Mawson 19 53422105
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 16 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 0000 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Apr 8 G0
02 Apr 10 G0
03 Apr 10 G0
COMMENT:
G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 31-Mar. Mostly G0 activity was observed in the
Antarctic region, with isolated periods of G1 observed at Casey
and Mawson at the start of the UT day.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 01-03 Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 31-Mar were
mostly normal. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over
01-03 Apr. Shortwave fadeouts are probable on 01-Apr, and possible
over 02-03 Apr.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Mar 124
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 138
Mar 111
Apr 112
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Apr 125 Near predicted monthly values
02 Apr 120 Near predicted monthly values
03 Apr 120 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT:
ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 34 was issued on 29 March
and is current for 30 Mar to 1 Apr.
Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 31-Mar were near
predicted monthly values in the Australian region, with enhancements
of around 15% observed in the southern Australian region during
local night. Mild spread F was observed at Hobart and Canberra
during local night hours.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 01-03 Apr.
Shortwave fadeouts are probable on 01-Apr, and possible over 02-03 Apr.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Mar
Speed: 339 km/sec Density: 7.2 p/cc Temp: 16800 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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