[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 10 September 23 issued 2330 UT on 10 Sep 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 11 09:30:08 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 SEPTEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 SEPTEMBER - 13 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Sep: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Sep: 164/118
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 155/109 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 10-Sep was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares. There are currently nine numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and two unnumbered
regions. AR3423 (N17W22, beta) remains the largest region on
the solar disk and has shown some minor decay in its intermediate
spots. AR3418 (N22W78, beta) has grown and will soon rotate over
the western limb. AR3425 (N23E15, beta) has exhibited spot development
in its intermediate spots over the UT day. Newly numbered regions
AR3427 (N27E19, beta), AR3428 (N13W44, beta), AR3429 (N11E59,
beta), AR3430 (S16E08, beta) and AR3431 (S08E61, beta) have all
shown spot growth since appearing on the solar disk. Of these,
AR3431 has shown the most rapid spot development. Two unnumbered
regions are visible at S23W54 (beta) and S21E57 (alpha) which
both appear mostly stable. All other sunspot regions are either
stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1
levels over 11-13 Sep. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed.
A northwest-directed CME was observed, visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph
imagery from 10/1724UT. This CME is considered a farside event
and therefore not geoeffective. The solar wind speed on UT day
10-Sep was mostly stable, ranging from 310 to 365 km/s and is
currently near 350 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +5 to -4 nT. Small coronal holes at solar latitudes
N35 and S20 may influence the solar wind speed in the coming
days. The solar wind speed is expected to increase over 11-13
Sep due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 10 Sep : A K
Australian Region 2 21100011
Cocos Island 2 12210010
Darwin 2 21100102
Townsville 3 21100112
Learmonth 2 21110010
Alice Springs 2 11100002
Gingin 2 11110020
Canberra 1 20000011
Hobart 1 10000101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Sep :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey - --------
Mawson 8 20010144
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 8 3212 3301
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Sep 6 G0
12 Sep 8 G0
13 Sep 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 10-Sep. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 11-13 Sep.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Sep Normal Normal Normal
12 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 10-Sep were
normal. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 11-13 Sep.
Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Sep 110
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 115
Sep 96
Oct 93
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Sep 110 Near predicted monthly values
12 Sep 110 Near predicted monthly values
13 Sep 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 10-Sep were
near predicted monthly values to 35% enhanced in the Australian
region. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
over 11-13 Sep. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Sep
Speed: 367 km/sec Density: 4.7 p/cc Temp: 61200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list