[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 09 September 23 issued 2330 UT on 09 Sep 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 10 09:30:08 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 SEPTEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 SEPTEMBER - 12 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Sep: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Sep: 161/115
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Sep 11 Sep 12 Sep
Activity R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 155/109 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 09-Sep was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares. There are currently six numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and four unnumbered
regions. AR3423 (N17W08, beta) is the largest region on the solar
disk and has shown some growth in its intermediate spots over
the UT day. AR3421 (N15W65, beta) has exhibited growth in its
intermediate spots, whilst its trailer spots have decayed. AR3424
(N16E22, beta) and AR3418 (N22W65, beta) have both grown over
the 24-hour period. All other sunspot regions are either stable
or in decay. Unnumbered regions are visible at N11E75 (beta),
S21E69 (alpha), S25W42 (beta) and N13W32 (beta). All unnumbered
regions appear mostly stable. Solar activity is expected to be
at the R0 level over 10-12 Sep, with a chance of R1. No Earth-directed
CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 09-Sep
was mostly stable, ranging from 350 to 400 km/s and is currently
near 350 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+6 to -6 nT. A small coronal hole is now in the western hemisphere
at solar latitude N35 and may influence the solar wind speed
in the coming days. The solar wind speed is expected to increase
over 10-12 Sep due to a potential glancing impact on 10-Sep from
a CME first observed on 07-Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 09 Sep : A K
Australian Region 5 12222201
Cocos Island 3 11122200
Darwin 5 12222202
Townsville 6 22222212
Learmonth 5 21223200
Alice Springs 5 12222202
Gingin 5 21223200
Canberra 4 12122201
Hobart 5 12123201
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Sep :
Macquarie Island 7 12143200
Casey 11 34333200
Mawson 15 54232310
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 6 3101 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Sep 20 G0, chance G1
11 Sep 8 G0
12 Sep 6 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 50 was issued on 8 September
and is current for 10 Sep only. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 09-Sep. Mostly G0
geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Antarctic region,
with an isolated period of G1 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 10-12 Sep, with a chance of G1 on
10-Sep due to a possible glancing impact from a CME first observed
on 07-Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
11 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 09-Sep were
mostly normal. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over
10-12 Sep, with fair conditions at middle to high latitudes on
10-Sep due to an anticipated increase in geomagnetic activity. Isolated
minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Sep 118
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 50% during local day.
Enhanced by 80% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 115
Sep 96
Oct 93
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Sep 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
11 Sep 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
12 Sep 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 88 was issued on
8 September and is current for 8-10 Sep. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 09-Sep were near predicted monthly values to
15% enhanced in the Australian region. MUFs are expected to be
near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 10-12 Sep.
Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Sep
Speed: 358 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 51400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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