[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 08 September 23 issued 2330 UT on 08 Sep 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 9 09:30:08 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 SEPTEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 SEPTEMBER - 11 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Sep: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Sep: 161/115
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Sep 10 Sep 11 Sep
Activity R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 160/114 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 08-Sep was at the R0 level,
with several low level C-class flares. There are currently five
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3423 (N17E05,
beta) is the most significant region on the solar disk and has
exhibited spot development over the UT day, especially in its
intermediate spots. AR3425 (N23E41, beta) was responsible for
the majority of the C-class flares observed but decayed over
the UT day. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in
decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level over
09-11 Sep, with a chance of R1. No Earth-directed CMEs have been
observed. A halo CME was observed, visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph
imagery from 08/1136UT. This CME is considered a farside event
and therefore not geoeffective. An east-directed CME visible
at 08/0224UT is also not considered to be geoeffective. The solar
wind speed on UT day 08-Sep was mostly stable, ranging from 335
to 385 km/s and is currently near 365 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +7 to -6 nT. A small coronal hole is approaching
the solar central meridian at solar latitude N35. The solar wind
speed is expected to remain at background levels on 09-Sep, then
possibly increase on 10-Sep due to a potential glancing impact
from a CME first observed on 07-Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 08 Sep : A K
Australian Region 3 21101211
Cocos Island 2 11111200
Darwin 4 21101212
Townsville 3 21001212
Learmonth 2 11101210
Alice Springs 3 21101211
Gingin 3 11100310
Canberra 2 12001210
Hobart 3 22001210
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Sep :
Macquarie Island 2 11001210
Casey 5 23211210
Mawson 8 43121220
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 6 3121 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Sep 6 G0
10 Sep 12 G0, slight chance G1
11 Sep 6 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 50 was issued on 8 September
and is current for 10 Sep only. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 08-Sep.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 09-11 Sep, with a
slight chance of G1 on 10-Sep due to a possible glancing impact
from a CME first observed on 07-Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Sep Normal Normal Normal
10 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 08-Sep were
mostly normal. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over
09-11 Sep. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Sep 104
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 45% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 115
Sep 96
Oct 93
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Sep 105 Near predicted monthly values
10 Sep 105 Near predicted monthly values
11 Sep 105 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 88 was issued on
8 September and is current for 8-10 Sep. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 08-Sep were mostly near predicted monthly values
in the Australian region. Scintillation was observed at Niue
08/0951-1010UT. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values over 09-11 Sep. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Sep
Speed: 367 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 47700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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