[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 07 September 23 issued 2330 UT on 07 Sep 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 8 09:30:42 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 SEPTEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 SEPTEMBER - 10 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Sep: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.1 1909UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Sep: 161/115
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Sep 09 Sep 10 Sep
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 158/112 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 07-Sep was R1, due to an M2
flare associated with a filament eruption in between solar regions
AR3424(N16E50, beta) and AR3425(N23E56, beta). The erupting section
of filament approximately located at N20E50 is estimated to be
around 20-25 degrees long. Very limited space based coronagraph
imagery is available with LASCO C3 showing at 07/2148UT a north
east non Earth directed associated CME. Solar region AR3425(N23E56,
beta) is growing. Solar region AR3421(N15W36, beta) which has
recently shown growth and spot redistribution, may now be in
initial decay. Region AR3423(N17E21, beta) showed development
in intermediate spots, though the leader spot may be in initial
decay. Small solar region AR3424(N16E50, beta) was overall stable,
showing decay in its small leader spot and the development of
a small intermediate spot. Other regions are very small and uninteresting.
There are currently eight numbered solar regions on the visible
disk. Solar activity is expected to be R0-R1, with a slight chance
for an R2 flare over 08-10 Sep, with isolated flare activity
possible from AR3425, AR3423 and AR3421. No new significantly
Earth directed CMEs have been observed up to 07/1724UT. A slow
bright north east CME from the base of a coronal streamer was
observed from 07/00-06UT and is not considered Earth directed.
A minor narrow south east CME was observed from 07/1148UT, with
coronal diming evident in SDO193 at 07/1048-1117UT, possibly
associated with minor flare activity from/near AR3423. Event
modeling assuming this location shows an Earth miss. A faint
semi halo predominately north and slightly west directed CME
was observed from 07/1325UT. This CME is currently presumed far
side and is directed more northward out of the ecliptic plane.
A CME analysis of the filament eruption will be conducted as
images become available. The solar wind speed on UT day 07-Sep
declined, ranging from 321 to 448 km/sec. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 5 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +5 to -6 nT. A small coronal hole is visible to
the east of the solar central meridian at solar latitude N35.
Nominal solar wind speed is expected for today.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 07 Sep : A K
Australian Region 3 11112101
Cocos Island 2 11111100
Darwin 4 12112102
Townsville 5 21212112
Learmonth 4 22212101
Alice Springs 3 11112102
Gingin 3 21112110
Canberra 1 11001001
Hobart 3 1-112101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Sep :
Macquarie Island 1 11011100
Casey 8 33322111
Mawson 22 41211256
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 8 2121 3311
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Sep 7 G0
09 Sep 6 G0
10 Sep 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 07-Sep. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in Antarctica, with periods of G1 and G2 observed at
Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 08-10 Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Sep Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Sep Normal Normal Fair-normal
09 Sep Normal Normal Fair-normal
10 Sep Normal Normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 07-Sep were
mostly normal. Generally normal conditions are expected for 08-10
Sep. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Sep 114
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 115
Sep 96
Oct 93
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Sep 110 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
09 Sep 110 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
10 Sep 110 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 87 was issued on
5 September and is current for 6-8 Sep. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 07-Sep were mostly near predicted values in
the Australian region. Scintillation was observed at Niue 07/0733-1118UT.
Strong enhancements were also observed at Niue. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 08-10
Sep. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Sep
Speed: 407 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 71700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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