[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 06 September 23 issued 2330 UT on 06 Sep 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 7 09:30:08 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 SEPTEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 SEPTEMBER - 09 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Sep: R0
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 05/2339UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Sep: 147/101
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Sep 08 Sep 09 Sep
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 155/109 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 06-Sep was R0. Solar region
AR3421(N15W24, beta) produced an M1 flare late in the UT day
on 05-Sep. Solar regions AR3423(N17E34, beta) and AR3421 are
currently the largest regions on the disk, with AR3421 producing
several low to mid C class flares and AR3423 remaining flare
quiet. Small solar region AR3417(S05W43, alpha) produced a single
low level C1 flare. Both AR3423 and AR3421 are currently growing.
A new small region AR3425(N23E69, beta) has rotated onto the
disk and appears to be showing growth as it rotates into view.
Solar region AR3424(N16E63, beta) which recently rotated onto
the solar disk is currently a small stable bipolar group. Other
regions are very small and uninteresting. There are currently
eight numbered solar regions on the visible disk. Solar activity
is expected to be R0-R1, with a slight chance for an R2 flare
over 07-09 Sep, with isolated flare activity possibly from AR3421.No
new significantly Earth directed CMEs have been observed. The
asymmetric halo CME observed yesterday from 05/2048UT could not
be correlated with Earth facing solar activity, appearing to
be from behind the south west solar limb. The solar wind speed
on UT day 06-Sep was moderately elevated and steady, ranging
from 369 to 461 km/sec. The peak total interplanetary field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was +5 to -6 nT. Bz was oriented mildly southward at times during
the interval 06/0347-1321. Moderately elevated solar wind conditions
are expected for today, then a declining trend is expected.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 06 Sep : A K
Australian Region 5 21203211
Cocos Island 4 11212120
Darwin 6 22203211
Townsville 7 22203222
Learmonth 5 21213210
Alice Springs 5 12203211
Gingin 6 21213220
Canberra 4 11203210
Hobart 6 21203310
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Sep :
Macquarie Island 9 10215300
Casey 7 22322121
Mawson 9 23222232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 11 1221 2442
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Sep 8 G0
08 Sep 6 G0
09 Sep 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 06-Sep. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in Antarctica, with an isolated period of G1 observed
at Macquarie Island. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over
07-09 Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Sep Normal Normal Normal
09 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 06-Sep were
mostly normal, with degraded conditions observed during local
night hours at middle to high latitudes. Generally normal conditions
are expected for 07-09 Sep, with further mild degradations during
local night hours at middle to high latitudes possible. Isolated
minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Sep 102
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 115
Sep 96
Oct 93
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Sep 110 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
08 Sep 110 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
09 Sep 110 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 87 was issued on
5 September and is current for 6-8 Sep. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 06-Sep were mostly near predicted values in
the Australian region. Strong frequency spread was observed at
Hobart and range spread was observed at Niue during local night
hours. Scintillation was observed at Niue 06/0739-1050UT. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
over 07-09 Sep. Further periods of local night HF degradation
are possible for the southern Australian region. Isolated minor
shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Sep
Speed: 396 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 55700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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