[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 05 September 23 issued 2330 UT on 05 Sep 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 6 09:30:46 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 SEPTEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 SEPTEMBER - 08 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Sep: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.0 0812UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.2 1945UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Sep: 143/97
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Sep 07 Sep 08 Sep
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 144/98 142/96 142/96
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 05-Sep was R1, with an M2 flare
from AR3421 at 05/0810 UT and an M1 flare at 05/1946 UT. Both
flares originated from (N15W09, beta-gamma). There are currently
eight numbered sunspots on the disk. AR3421 has shown some growth,
particularly in its trailer spots, and is currently the most
complex region on the disk. AR 3423 (N17E47, beta) has grown
over the past 24 hours, and new region AR3424 is currently rotating
over the eastern limb near N30. AR3424 is not yet visible for
analysis, however appears to have at least a bipolar magnetic
configuration and the region was responsible for several high-level
C-class flares. Solar activity is expected to be R0-R1 with a
chance for R2 over 06-08 Sep, predominantly from AR3421 and AR3424.
A large and fast halo CME was observed from 05/1412 UT, but this
is considered a farside event, most likely from ex-region AR3413.
Imagery suggests a second CME may have erupted shortly after
the first from a different source, although neither of these
CMEs are expected to be geoeffective. No other CMEs were observed
on 05-Sep. An unstable filament was observed near the south solar
pole from 05/1400 UT, but any subsequent eruption is not likely
to be significantly Earth-directed. A halo CME was observed from
05/2048 UT and was associated with a type II radio sweep. Analysis
is ongoing to determine the source of this CME and any possible
Earth-directed component.
The solar wind speed on UT day 05-Sep
was steady until 1430 UT when it abruptly increased to near 450
km/s, suggesting the arrival of a recent CME. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) reached 10 nT from this
impact and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +9 to
-9 nT. Bz was oriented southward intermittently from 1430 until
1900 UT. The solar wind is expected to be near 450 km/s on 06-Sep,
returning to background levels over 07-08 Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 05 Sep : A K
Australian Region 9 11212432
Cocos Island 7 01222331
Darwin 8 12212332
Townsville 8 22212332
Learmonth 7 11222331
Alice Springs 9 12112432
Gingin 10 11212441
Canberra 8 11012432
Hobart 7 01112431
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Sep :
Macquarie Island 7 01012431
Casey 14 23322442
Mawson 52 22211873
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 8 3321 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Sep 12 G0, slight chance G1
07 Sep 8 G0
08 Sep 6 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 49 was issued on 5 September
and is current for 5-6 Sep. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 05-Sep, although a geomagnetic
disturbance from 05/1440 UT led to some K-indices of 4. The source
of this disturbance was a recent CME.
Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in Antarctica, with a
period of G4 and G3 observed at Mawson following the disturbance.
Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 06-08 Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Sep Normal-fair Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
07 Sep Normal Normal Fair
08 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 05-Sep was
degraded at high latitudes and mostly normal at middle and low
latitudes. Further degradations are possible over 06-07 Sep,
with conditions likely to improve by 08-Sep. Isolated shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Sep 92
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 80% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 115
Sep 96
Oct 93
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Sep 95 Near predicted monthly values
07 Sep 100 Near predicted monthly values
08 Sep 105 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 87 was issued on
5 September and is current for 6-8 Sep. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 05-Sep were mostly near predicted values in
the Australian region. Spread was observed in Hobart, Perth and
Niue during local night hours. Overall degraded conditions were
observed at Hobart and Niue. Scintillation was observed at Niue
during local evening hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values over 06-08 Sep, with enhancements of 15% possible
by 08-Sep. Some further degradations are possible during local
night hours. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Sep
Speed: 406 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 52400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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