[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 04 September 23 issued 2330 UT on 04 Sep 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 5 09:30:09 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 SEPTEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 SEPTEMBER - 07 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Sep: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Sep: 136/90
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Sep 06 Sep 07 Sep
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 138/92 135/89 138/92
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 04-Sep was R0, with the largest
flare of the day being C6 from ex-region AR3413, which is beyond
the western limb and mostly out of view. There are currently
seven numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3421 (N15E02,
beta-gamma) has grown rapidly overnight and is the most complex
region on the visible disk, although has not been associated
with any significant activity. AR3422 (N13E21, beta) and AR3423
(N17E60, beta) have also shown some minor growth over the period.
Solar activity is expected to be R0-R1 over 05-07 Sep. A CME
was observed from 04/1248 UT on the southeastern solar limb,
but is not expected to be geoeffective. No other CMEs were observed
in the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed on UT day 04-Sep was
on a steady decline and ranged between 467 to 379 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +3 to -3 nT. The solar
wind speed is expected to remain near background levels over
05-07 Aug, although mild increases are possible due to possible
weak glancing blows from recent CMEs.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 04 Sep : A K
Australian Region 4 22111211
Cocos Island 3 21110220
Darwin 4 22111112
Townsville 5 22111212
Learmonth 5 22211220
Alice Springs 3 11101211
Gingin 4 21101320
Canberra 3 21101210
Hobart 3 12111210
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Sep :
Macquarie Island 3 21012110
Casey 10 34312220
Mawson 11 43212330
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 28
Planetary 25 6354 3323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Sep 15 G0, chance G1
06 Sep 10 G0, slight chance G1
07 Sep 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in both the
Australian and Antarctica region on UT day 04-Sep. There is a
chance for weak glancing blows from several CMEs over the next
few days, such that G0 with a slight chance for G1 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 05-06 Sep. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected on 07-Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Sep Normal-fair Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
06 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 04-Sep were
degraded at high latitudes. Generally improving HF conditions
are expected over 05-07 Sep, with possible degraded conditions
during local night hours for middle to high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Sep 92
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 115
Sep 96
Oct 93
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Sep 90 Near predicted monthly values
06 Sep 95 Near predicted monthly values
07 Sep 100 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 04-Sep were
mostly near predicted monthly values in the Australian region.
Degraded conditions with observed at Hobart during local night
hours. Strong range spread was observed at Perth and sporadic-E
was observed at Townsville during local night hours. MUFs are
expected to be near predicted values over 05-07 Sep, possibly
becoming enhanced by the end of the period. Some further degradations
may be observed during local night hours on UT day 05-Sep.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Sep
Speed: 485 km/sec Density: 9.8 p/cc Temp: 54600 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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