[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 11 September 23 issued 2330 UT on 11 Sep 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 12 09:30:08 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 SEPTEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 SEPTEMBER - 14 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Sep: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 0128UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.1 0407UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.1 1449UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Sep: 176/130
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Sep 13 Sep 14 Sep
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 170/124 168/122
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 11-Sep was at the R1 level,
with three M1 class flares. Solar region AR3429(N11E49, beta)
produced an M1.3 flare at 11/0128UT which had a duration of 49
minutes. Solar region AR3431(S08E51, beta) produced two M1.1
flares at 11/0407UT and 11/1449 UT and four C class flares. Solar
region AR3425(N27E05, beta) produced a C5 flare and AR3423(N17W32,
beta) produced a C7 flare. Solar region AR3423 is currently the
largest region on the disk and has been stable. Region AR3425
is showing growth in its trailer spots and region AR3429 has
developed an intermediate spot. Solar region AR3431 is showing
spot redistribution. Solar region AR3430(S16W02, beta) is growing
and has remained flare quiet. There are currently ten numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. A new region is rotating
onto the solar disk at solar latitude N28. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be at R0-R1 levels over 12-14 Sep. The relatively long duration
M1.3 flare had an associated north east non Earth directed
CME observed from 11/0148UT. Event modelling shows an Earth miss.
A semi halo south directed CME was observed from 11/1100UT and
has been associated with an erupting prominence near the south
east polar limb visible in GOES SUVI 304 from 11/1025UT. This CME
is considered non Earth directed. A small solar filament then
erupted (GONG H-alpha imagery) at 11/1410UT centred at S22W05.
A narrower more minor slower CME appears associated with this
on disk solar filament eruption which was observed from 11/1436UT
directed to the south and east. This CME was difficult to discern
due to the earlier larger south polar prominence CME. Preliminary
analysis shows a very slow CME with no significant impact to the Earth's
magnetosphere. The solar wind speed on UT day 11-Sep slowly increased,
ranging from 351 to 429 km/s and is currently near 400 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +7 to -6
nT. The mild increase in wind speed is due to a coronal hole
wind stream. The solar wind speed is expected to be mildly elevated
today. Two small coronal holes near the solar central meridian
may mildly increase the solar wind speed in 3-4 days time.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 11 Sep : A K
Australian Region 5 22112112
Cocos Island 4 22211011
Darwin 4 22111102
Townsville 5 22112122
Learmonth 6 22212212
Alice Springs 4 22111102
Gingin 4 21111112
Canberra 3 11112111
Hobart 4 11112211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Sep :
Macquarie Island 1 11011100
Casey - --------
Mawson 10 23112234
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 3 1001 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Sep 10 G0
13 Sep 10 G0
14 Sep 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 11-Sep. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 12-14 Sep. A coronal hole wind stream my very
mildly increase geomagnetic activity 12-13 Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Sep Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 11-Sep were
normal. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 12-14 Sep.
Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Sep 105
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 115
Sep 96
Oct 93
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Sep 110 Near predicted monthly values
13 Sep 110 Near predicted monthly values
14 Sep 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 89 was issued on
11 September and is current for 11-13 Sep. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 11-Sep were near predicted monthly values to
20% enhanced in the Australian region. Spread F was observed
at Hobart during local night hours. Ionospheric scintillation
was observed at Niue 11/0717-0740UT. Very minor fadeouts may
have been experienced at 11/0128UT and 11/0407UT in association
with M1 flare activity. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values over 12-14 Sep. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Sep
Speed: 343 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 60300 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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