[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 29 October 23 issued 2331 UT on 29 Oct 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 30 10:31:04 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 OCTOBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 OCTOBER - 01 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Oct: 135/89
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Oct 31 Oct 01 Nov
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 132/86 134/88
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 29-Oct was at the R0 level,
with several high C-class flares. There are currently four numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered
region. AR3474 (S17E15, beta) showed significant spot development
over the UT day and was responsible for the largest C-class flares
of the day. AR3472 (N20E04, beta-gamma) and AR3473 (N13E28, beta)
also showed minor spot development. AR3275 (NN15W63, alpha) decayed.
An unnumbered region has appeared on the solar disk at around
S35W20 with beta magnetic characteristics. Solar activity over
30-Oct to 1-Nov is expected to be at the R0 level, with a chance
of R1. No geoeffective CMEs were observed on 29-Oct. A slow,
east-directed CME was observed in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery from
28/2348UT. There is no clear on-disk activity associated with
this CME and it is considered a far side event and not geoeffective.
A slow, east-directed CME was observed in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery
from 29/1600UT. Coronal dimming at S15 off the eastern limb is
visible in GOES SUVI imagery from 29/1541UT. This CME is considered
a far side event and not geoeffective. The solar wind speed on
UT day 29-Oct increased, ranging between 521 and 684 km/s and
is currently near 570 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +5 to -8 nT. A sustained period of southward Bz
was observed from 29/0643UT to 29/0906UT. The solar wind speed
is expected to remain elevated over 30-Oct to 1-Nov due to ongoing
coronal hole high speed wind stream effects. There is a chance
of a decrease on 1-Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 29 Oct : A K
Australian Region 14 32334323
Cocos Island 11 22333322
Darwin 13 22334323
Townsville 15 32334333
Learmonth 16 32334423
Alice Springs 14 32334323
Gingin 15 32334333
Canberra 13 32334223
Hobart 15 33334323
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Oct :
Macquarie Island 36 34556532
Casey 30 45643333
Mawson 50 55564546
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 46 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 27
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 16 0334 4433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Oct 15 G0, chance of G1
31 Oct 15 G0, chance of G1
01 Nov 10 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 64 was issued on 29 October
and is current for 29-31 Oct. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 29-Oct. G2 conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions,
with a chance of G1 are expected over 30-31 Oct due to ongoing
coronal hole high speed wind stream effects. G0 conditions are
expected on 1-Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were normal to fair
on 29-Oct, with degradations at high latitudes due to geomagnetic
activity. Mostly normal conditions are expected in low to mid
latitudes over 30-Oct to 1-Nov. Fair conditions are expected
at high latitudes over 30-31 Oct, and mostly normal conditions
are expected on 1-Nov.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Oct 100
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 104
Oct 98
Nov 96
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Oct 110 Near predicted monthly values
31 Oct 110 Near predicted monthly values
01 Nov 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 106 was issued on 29
October and is current for 29-31 Oct. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the northern Australian region on UT day 29-Oct were
enhanced by 15% during local day and near predicted monthly values
during local night. MUFs in the southern Australian region were
depressed by up to 15% during local day and near predicted monthly
values during local night, with the strongest depressions observed
in the southeastern Australian region. Spread F was observed
at Hobart during local night. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values over 30-31 Oct, with mild depressions possible
in the southern Australian region. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced on 1-Nov.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Oct
Speed: 454 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 156000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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