[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 30 October 23 issued 2331 UT on 30 Oct 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 31 10:31:22 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 OCTOBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 31 OCTOBER - 02 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Oct: 140/94
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Oct 01 Nov 02 Nov
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 30-Oct was R0, with no notable
solar flares. There are currently three numbered sunspot regions
on the disk and two regions on the western solar limb, about
to rotate out of view. All of the visible sunspots have shown
some growth over the part 24 hours, in particular AR3474 (S17E01,
beta) having the most significant growth and being the largest
sunspot region. Solar activity is expected to be R0-R1 over 31-Oct
to 02-Nov.
A faint partial halo CME was observed from the northwestern
solar limb from 30/0048 UT, but this event is considered to be
farside and therefore not geoeffective. No other CMEs were observed
on UT day 30-Oct. There are currently a large number of solar
filaments on the visible solar disk, and while they are all mostly
stable at time of writing they will all be monitored closely
for any possible eruption.
The solar wind parameters on UT day
30-Oct showed signs of waning coronal hole wind stream effects.
The solar wind speed was on a general declining trend and ranged
between 600 to 500 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +5 to -5 nT. Solar wind conditions are expected
to remain slightly enhanced over 31-Oct to 01-Nov but on a declining
trend. Background solar wind conditions are expected by 02-Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 30 Oct : A K
Australian Region 7 32123121
Cocos Island 5 22113120
Darwin 6 22123111
Townsville 8 22133122
Learmonth 8 32123122
Alice Springs 7 32123111
Gingin 8 32133121
Canberra 8 22133122
Hobart 9 32233122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Oct :
Macquarie Island 25 32166221
Casey 20 45434222
Mawson 30 55334354
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 26 4344 5433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Oct 15 G0, slight chance G1
01 Nov 10 G0
02 Nov 6 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 64 was issued on 29 October
and is current for 29-31 Oct. Geomagnetic activity in the Australian
region on UT day 30-Oct was G0. Geomagnetic activity in the Antarctica
region was G0-G2. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 31-Oct to 02-Nov, with a slight chance for G1 on 31-Oct
due to ongoing, but waning, coronal hole wind stream effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Oct Fair Normal Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Oct Normal-fair Normal Fair
01 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 30-Oct were
mostly normal during local daylight hours but degraded, mostly
and low and high latitudes, during local night hours. Conditions
are expected to recover over 31-Oct to 02-Nov, with mild degradations
possible at local night and dawn hours on 31-Oct.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Oct 113
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 104
Oct 98
Nov 96
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Oct 110 Near predicted monthly values
01 Nov 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
02 Nov 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 106 was issued on 29
October and is current for 29-31 Oct. Maximum usable frequencies(
MUFs) were mostly near predicted monthly values in the Australian
region. Spoardic-E was observed at Hobart, Canberra and Brisbane
during local night hours. Degraded conditions were observed at
Niue Island during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be
near predicted monthly values on over 31-Oct to 02-Nov, with
enhancements up to 15% possible over 01-02 Nov.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Oct
Speed: 583 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 151000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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