[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 28 October 23 issued 2330 UT on 28 Oct 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 29 10:30:08 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 OCTOBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 OCTOBER - 31 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Oct: 128/81
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Oct 30 Oct 31 Oct
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 129/82 133/87 137/91
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 28-Oct was at the R0 level.
There are currently four numbered sunspot regions on the solar
disk and one unnumbered region. AR3472 (N20E18, beta), AR3473
(N13E42, beta). AR3474 (S17E30, gamma) and AR3475 (N15W49, beta)
all displayed spot development but remain small and relatively
magnetically simple, AR3475 also displayed decay later in the
UT day. An unnumbered region has appeared on the solar disk at
around S30W24 with alpha magnetic characteristics. Solar activity
over 29-31 Oct is expected to be at the R0 level, with a chance
of R1. No geoeffective CMEs were observed on 28-Oct. A slow,
southeast directed CME is visible in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery
from 28/1136UT. No associated activity is visible on the solar
disk and this CME is not considered geoeffective. The solar wind
speed on UT day 28-Oct increased, ranging between 341 and 570
km/s and is currently near 525 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 13 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +8 to -10 nT, with several periods of consistent
southward Bz occurring throughout the day, including at time
of writing. The elevated solar wind speed and IMF magnitude suggests
the Earth is under the influence of a coronal hole high speed
wind stream. This is expected to continue over 29-30 Oct, with
a further increase in solar wind speed expected over 30-31 Oct
due to high speed wind stream effects, from a large equatorial
coronal hole rotating towards a geoeffective position. There
is a possibility of a glancing impact from a CME first observed
on 26-Oct on 29-Oct, further increasing solar wind speed over
the 29-31 Oct period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 28 Oct : A K
Australian Region 14 23333333
Cocos Island 10 13232323
Darwin 11 13233233
Townsville 14 23333333
Learmonth 14 23333333
Alice Springs 14 23333333
Gingin 13 22333333
Canberra 11 13323233
Hobart 15 13334333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Oct :
Macquarie Island 26 12355543
Casey 23 45533233
Mawson 39 24554456
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Hobart 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 3422 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Oct 16 G0, chance of G1
30 Oct 20 G0-G1
31 Oct 20 G0-G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australia
region on UT day 28-Oct. G1 conditions were observed in the Antarctic
region, with a period of G2 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 29-Oct, with a chance of G1 due to
ongoing coronal hole high speed wind stream effects possibly
combined with a glancing impact from a CME first observed on
26-Oct. G0-G1 conditions are expected over 30-31 Oct due to anticipated
further coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
30 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
31 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were normal to fair
on 28-Oct. Mostly normal conditions are expected in low to mid
latitudes over 29-31 Oct and at high latitudes on 29-Oct. Fair
conditions are expected at high latitudes over 30-31 Oct, with
degradations possible due to possible geomagnetic activity over
29-31 Oct.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Oct 133
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 104
Oct 98
Nov 96
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Oct 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
30 Oct 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
31 Oct 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the northern Australian
region on UT day 28-Oct were enhanced by 15-25%, with the strongest
enhancements occurring during local night. MUFs in the southern
Australian region were depressed by up to 15% during local day
and enhanced by up to 15% during local night. Strong spread F
was observed at Darwin and spread F was observed at Hobart. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
over 29-31 Oct, with the chance of depressions of up to 15% over
30-31 Oct in the southern Australian region due to possible geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Oct
Speed: 410 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 73500 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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