[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 27 October 23 issued 2330 UT on 27 Oct 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 28 10:30:11 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 OCTOBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 OCTOBER - 30 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Oct: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.4 26/2324UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Oct: 128/81
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Oct 29 Oct 30 Oct
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 128/81 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 27-Oct was at the R1 level,
due to the tail of a long duration M1 flare at 26/2315UT. There
are currently five numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk.
AR3273 (N13E54, beta) was responsible for the M1 flare on 26-Oct.
This area is small and near the eastern limb, making the magnetic
character difficult to determine, there is a possible delta spot
present in this active region. AR3472 (N20E30, beta) showed spot
development over the UT day, with one pair of spots decaying
to be replaced by another two prominent spots. All other active
regions were either stable or in decay. Overall, the sunspot
regions on the disk are not currently significantly complex and
solar activity over 28-30 Oct is expected to be R0 with a chance
of R1. A fast, partial halo, east-directed CME, resulting from
the M1 flare on 26-Oct is visible in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery
from 26/2314UT. Modelling suggests a chance of a glancing impact
on the first half of 29-Oct, however the vast majority of the
material will pass behind the Earth. No other geoeffective CMEs
were observed on 27-Oct. The solar wind speed on UT day 27-Oct
decreased, ranging between 500 and 345 km/s and is currently
near 345 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 11 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+4 to -9 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to continue to
decrease towards background levels over 28-Oct. There is a chance
of an increase in the first half of 29-Oct due to a possible
glancing impact from the CME discussed above. A further increase
is expected on 30-Oct due to high speed wind stream effects from
a large equatorial coronal hole currently approaching a geoeffective
location.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 27 Oct : A K
Australian Region 6 22222121
Cocos Island 4 22211111
Darwin 6 22222122
Townsville 8 33222122
Learmonth 7 32222221
Alice Springs 5 22222111
Gingin 7 32222221
Canberra 5 22222111
Hobart 7 23223111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Oct :
Macquarie Island 13 33443111
Casey 15 45331122
Mawson 26 45533343
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 23 2214 5454
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Oct 8 G0
29 Oct 12 G0, chance of G1
30 Oct 16 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australia
region on UT day 27-Oct. G1 conditions were observed at Casey
and Mawson, whilst G0 conditions were observed at Macquarie Island.
G0 conditions are expected over 28-30 Oct, with a chance of G1
on 29-30 Oct due to a possible glancing impact from a CME on
29-Oct and high speed wind stream effects from an equatorial
coronal hole currently approaching a geoeffective position on
30-Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were mostly normal on
27-Oct. Mostly normal conditions are expected over 28-30 Oct,
with the chance of minor degradations at high latitudes on 29-30
Oct due to possible geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Oct 118
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 104
Oct 98
Nov 96
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Oct 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
29 Oct 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
30 Oct 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 105 was issued on
26 October and is current for 27-28 Oct. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 27-Oct were near predicted
monthly values, with enhancements of up to 15% during local day
in the southern Australian region and mild depressions at Learmonth
and Perth during local day. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values to 15% enhanced over 28-30 Oct.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Oct
Speed: 398 km/sec Density: 6.7 p/cc Temp: 83600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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