[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 26 October 23 issued 2332 UT on 26 Oct 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 27 10:32:42 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 OCTOBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 OCTOBER - 29 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Oct: R1
Flares: M1 at 2315 UT
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Oct: 126/79
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Oct 28 Oct 29 Oct
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 126/79 126/79 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 26-Oct was R1, with several
low level C-class flares and one R1 level radio blackout at 26/2315
UT from near AR3473. At the time of writing this flare has not
peaked. There are currently five numbered sunspot regions on
the solar disk. AR3472 (N20E43, beta) and AR3473 (N14E64, beta)
have grown from being mostly plage to having some very small
and simple spots and were responsible for most of the C-class
solar flares in the past 24 hours. AR 3471 (S22W32, beta) has
shown some minor growth over the period as well, and also contributed
to the C-class flaring, but all other sunspots are stable. Overall,
the sunspot regions on the disk are not currently significantly
complex and solar activity over 27-29 Oct is expected to be R0
with a chance of R1.
A CME was observed on the northwest solar limb from 25/2336 UT,
although this event is not considered to be Earth-directed due
to its location. A filament eruption was observed on the northeast limb
from 26/2250 UT near AR3473 associated with the R1 flare. A CME
is possible, but the event will be analysed when further imagery
becomes available. No other CMEs were observed on 26-Oct.
A weak CME may have passed close to Earth or had a glancing impact
on 26-Oct, possibly from a CME first seen on 21-Oct. Additionally,
the small coronal hole currently near W50 may have connected with Earth.
The solar wind speed on UT day 26-Oct was on a steady increase until
26/1320 UT, from when it increased notably. The solar wind speed ranged
between 330 to 550 km/s and is currently near 500 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 13 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +9 to -12 nT. Bz was oriented southward
for several sustained periods on 26-Oct. The solar wind parameters
are expected to remain enhanced on 27-Oct, returning to background levels
over 28-29 Oct. There is a large coronal hole currently near
the central meridian, however this is not expected to affect
Earth in the current 3-day forecast period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 26 Oct : A K
Australian Region 16 23344233
Cocos Island 10 23233222
Darwin 15 23244233
Townsville 17 23344243
Learmonth 17 33244333
Alice Springs 16 23344233
Gingin 16 32234244
Canberra 17 23344243
Hobart 18 23344334
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Oct :
Macquarie Island 23 22165333
Casey 26 45533334
Mawson 43 34345475
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 13 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 19
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 0000 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Oct 12 G0, slight chance G1
28 Oct 10 G0
29 Oct 8 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 62 was issued on 26 October
and is current for 26-27 Oct. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australia region on UT day 26-Oct, although there
were several periods where the Australian K-index reached 4 (under
but close to the G1 threshold). Mostly G0-G2 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Antarctica region, but with an isolated
period of G3 at Mawson. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to
be G0 over 27-29 Oct, although there is a slight chance for G1.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
28 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
29 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were mostly normal on
26-Oct, with some mild degradations during local night hours
in low latitudes. Mildly degraded HF conditions may be expected
over 27-28 Oct, particularly during local night hours. Conditions
are expected to return to normal by 29-Oct.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Oct 133
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 104
Oct 98
Nov 96
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Oct 120 Near predicted monthly values to 10-15% depressed
28 Oct 120 Near predicted monthly values to 10-15% depressed
29 Oct 130 Near predicted monthly values to 10-15% enhanced
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 105 was issued on
26 October and is current for 27-28 Oct. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 26-Oct were near predicted
monthly values to 20% enhanced. Sporadic-E was observed at low
latitude regions during local dusk and night hours. MUFs are
expected to be near predicted values, with possible depressions
of 10-15% over 27-28 Oct due to some mild geomagnetic activity.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 10-15%
enhanced by 29-Oct.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Oct
Speed: 327 km/sec Density: 6.5 p/cc Temp: 16100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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