[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 25 October 23 issued 2330 UT on 25 Oct 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 26 10:30:11 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 OCTOBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 OCTOBER - 28 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Oct: 126/79
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Oct 27 Oct 28 Oct
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 25-Oct was R0, with isolated
C-class flares, mostly from a region near the northeast solar
limb, although this region is mostly plage. There are currently
four numbered sunspot regions on the disk, however two of these
regions are mostly plage and the other two regions are either
stable or in decay. There are currently no magnetically sunspot
regions on the disk, and solar activity over 26-28 Oct is expected
to be R0.
No Earth directed CMEs were observed in available imagery.
There was an unstable filament near N20E10, but it has since
become stable from approximately 25/1000 UT.
The solar wind speed on UT day 25-Oct was steady and ranged
between 300-350 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was +2 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain
near background levels over 26-28 Oct, although there is a chance
for a mild elevation due to a small coronal hole wind stream
currently near W40. This coronal hole is in the northern solar
hemisphere, so there is low confidence in the high speed wind stream making
its way to Earth.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 25 Oct : A K
Australian Region 3 11002112
Cocos Island 2 11001111
Darwin 3 21001112
Townsville 4 11012113
Learmonth 3 21002112
Alice Springs 3 11002112
Gingin 3 21001122
Canberra 3 11012112
Hobart 3 11012112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Oct :
Macquarie Island 1 00001011
Casey 7 23212122
Mawson 12 22101245
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1000 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Oct 5 G0
27 Oct 5 G0
28 Oct 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctica regions on 25-Oct. G0 geomagnetic conditions are
expected over 26-28 Oct. There is a slight chance for a mild
geomagnetic disturbance over the period from a small coronal
hole wind stream, but effects are not expected to be significant.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Oct Normal Normal Normal
27 Oct Normal Normal Normal
28 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were mostly normal on
25-Oct, with some mild degradations during local night hours.
Mostly normal conditions are expected over 26-28 Oct.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Oct 128
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 104
Oct 98
Nov 96
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Oct 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
27 Oct 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
28 Oct 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 25-Oct were mostly near predicted values to
20% enhanced. Sporadic-E was observed at Townsville and Perth
during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values to 15% enhanced over 26-Oct.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Oct
Speed: 369 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 74000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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