[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 24 October 23 issued 2330 UT on 24 Oct 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 25 10:30:10 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 OCTOBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 OCTOBER - 27 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Oct: 121/73
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Oct 26 Oct 27 Oct
Activity R0 R0 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 24-Oct was at the R0 level,
with isolated small C-class flares only. There are currently
three numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. None
of these regions are magnetically complex, or have a history
of M-class flaring. AR3471 (S22W05, beta) showed sunspot development
over the UT day. The other regions are stable. Solar activity
is expected to be at the R0 level over 25-27 Oct, with a chance
of R1 on 27-Oct due to possible active regions rotating onto
the solar disk. No geoeffective CMEs were observed on 24-Oct.
A large filament lift off is visible near the south pole from
24/0946UT in SDO and GOES SUVI imagery. A faint, south directed
CME, is visible in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery from 24/1136UT.
This CME is not considered geoeffective. An east directed CME
is visible from 24/1712UT in STEREO-A and SOHO imagery. This
CME is associated with coronal movement off the eastern limb
in SDO and GOES SUVI imagery from 24/1626UT at around N10. Modelling
suggests this CME is not geoeffective. The solar wind speed decreased
over 24-Oct, ranging between 307 and 399 km/s, and is currently
near 340 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+6 to -4 nT. AN increase in the solar wind speed is expected
on 25-Oct due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects
combined with a possible glancing impact from a CME first observed
on 21-Oct, but this is low confidence. The solar wind speed is
expected to be near background levels over 26-27 Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 24 Oct : A K
Australian Region 3 21011121
Cocos Island 2 10111110
Darwin 4 21111112
Townsville 4 21111122
Learmonth 4 21011122
Alice Springs 2 20011111
Gingin 3 21010122
Canberra 2 10010121
Hobart 2 10011121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Oct :
Macquarie Island 0 00010010
Casey 9 33321122
Mawson 12 22311053
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1000 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Oct 12 G0, chance of G1
26 Oct 5 G0
27 Oct 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 24-Oct. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of G1 at Mawson.
G0 geomagnetic conditions, with a chance of G1 are expected on
25-Oct due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects. This
will be possibly combined with a weak CME impact on 25-Oct, although
this is low confidence and not expected to be significant if
it occurs. G0 conditions are expected over 26-27 Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Oct Normal Normal Normal
27 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were mostly normal on
24-Oct. Mostly normal conditions are expected over 25-27 Oct.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Oct 126
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 104
Oct 98
Nov 96
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Oct 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
26 Oct 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
27 Oct 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 24-Oct were generally near predicted monthly
values to 15% enhanced, with enhancements of up to 20% observed
in the northern Australian region after local dawn. Spread F
was observed at Canberra and Hobart during local night hours.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15%
enhanced over 25-27 Oct.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Oct
Speed: 356 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 45600 K Bz: 5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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