[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 23 October 23 issued 2331 UT on 23 Oct 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 24 10:31:06 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 OCTOBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 OCTOBER - 26 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Oct: 122/75
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Oct 25 Oct 26 Oct
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 130/84 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 23-Oct was at the R0 level,
with isolated small C-class flares only. There are currently
three numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. None of these
regions are magnetically complex, show sunspot development, or
have a history of M-class flaring. Solar activity is expected
to be at the R0 level over 24-26 Oct. No geoeffective CMEs were
observed on 23-Oct. Several CMEs were observed on 23-Oct, including
a fast, south directed CME at 23/0022UT in SOHO and STEREO-A
imagery. This CME is associated with a filament eruption off
the south limb from 23/0013UT in GOES SUVI and H-alpha imagery.
This CME is not considered geoeffective. A southwest directed
CME is visible in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery from 23/1611UT. This
CME is associated with a filament lift off visible in SDO, H-Alpha
and GOES SUVI imagery from 23/1325UT. Modelling indicates this
CME is not geoeffective. The solar wind speed was stable over
23-Oct, ranging between 321 and 392 km/s, and is currently near
350 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+7 to -3 nT. The solar wind is expected to remain near background
levels over 24-25 Oct, but an increase due to a coronal hole
high speed wind stream may be observed on 25-Oct. There is also
a slight chance that a CME first observed on 21-Oct may produce
a weak glancing blow on 25-Oct, but this is low confidence. The
solar wind speed is expected to be near background levels on
26-Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 23 Oct : A K
Australian Region 1 11001001
Cocos Island 1 11001000
Darwin 2 22001011
Townsville 2 12101011
Learmonth 1 11001011
Alice Springs 1 11001001
Gingin 1 11100001
Canberra 1 11000001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Oct :
Macquarie Island 0 00000100
Casey 13 44421112
Mawson 3 22201100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 10 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10 2222 2242
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Oct 6 G0
25 Oct 12 G0, chance of G1
26 Oct 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 23-Oct. Mostly G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 24-26 Oct, with a slight chance
for G1 on 25-Oct due to a coronal hole high speed wind stream.
This will be possibly combined with a weak CME impact on 25-Oct,
although this is low confidence and not expected to be significant
if it occurs.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Oct Normal Normal Normal
25 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were mostly normal on
23-Oct, with degradations observed at low latitudes for the first
half of the UT day. Mostly normal conditions are expected over
24-26 Oct.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Oct 112
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 104
Oct 98
Nov 96
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Oct 105 Near predicted monthly values
25 Oct 105 Near predicted monthly values
26 Oct 105 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 23-Oct were generally near predicted monthly
values, with enhancements of up to 15% observed in the northern
Australian region. Sporadic-E was observed at Hobart during local
night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
over 24-26 Oct.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Oct
Speed: 310 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 48400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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