[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 22 October 23 issued 2330 UT on 22 Oct 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 23 10:30:08 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 OCTOBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 OCTOBER - 25 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Oct: 119/71
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Oct 24 Oct 25 Oct
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 125/78 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 22-Oct was R0, with one B-class
flare. There are currently six numbered sunspot regions on the
solar disk, although two of these are on the limb and two of
these have mostly decayed into plage. The other two sunspots
are stable. There are currently no magnetically complex sunspot
regions on the solar disk and solar activity is expected to be
R0 over 23-25 Oct. A CME was observed off the western solar limb
from 22/0006 UT, quickly followed by another, and then by a third
by 22/1805 UT. The source of these CMEs is likely beyond the
limb and these CMEs have been analysed not to be geoeffective.
No other potential Earth-directed CMEs were observed. The solar
wind conditions on UT day 22-Oct were variable. A slight enhancement
to the solar wind parameters was observed, possibly indicative
of a recent CME passing close to Earth. The solar wind speed
was on a general inclining trend and ranged between 277 and 372
km/s, although it is still near background levels. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +7 to -9 nT. The solar wind parameter
Bz was oriented southward for several sustained periods. The
solar wind is expected to remain near background levels over
23-25 Oct, but an increase due to a coronal hole wind stream
may be observed by 25-Oct. There is a slight chance A CME that
was observed on 21-Oct may have a weak glancing blow on 25-Oct,
but this is low confidence.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 22 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 11121231
Cocos Island 4 11121121
Darwin 5 11121132
Townsville 6 11221231
Learmonth 6 21121232
Alice Springs 5 11121131
Norfolk Island 3 11110121
Gingin 6 21121231
Canberra 5 11111231
Hobart 9 --32123-
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Oct :
Macquarie Island 9 10342321
Casey 13 33432231
Mawson 20 34223262
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 7 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 21 4454 3321
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Oct 6 G0
24 Oct 6 G0
25 Oct 12 G0, slight chance G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 22-Oct. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctica region, with an isolated period of
G2 at Mawson. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over
23-25 Oct, with a slight chance for G1 by 25-Oct due to a coronal
hole wind stream. There is a slight chance a weak CME may impact
Earth on 25-Oct, although this is low confidence and not expected
to be significant if it occurs.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Oct Normal Fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Oct Normal Normal Normal
25 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were mostly normal on
22-Oct but became mildly degraded by the end of the UT day, especially
at mid-latitude locations. Mild degradations may continue into
23-Oct, but are expected to return to normal over 24-25 Oct.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Oct 107
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 104
Oct 98
Nov 96
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Oct 105 Near predicted monthly values
24 Oct 110 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
25 Oct 110 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 22-Oct were generally near predicted monthly
values, with depressions of around 10% in the southern Australian
region. Sporadic-E was observed at Brisbane, Cocos Islands, Norfolk
Island, Perth and Townsville during local night hours. MUFs are
expected to be near predicted monthly values over 23-25 Oct,
possibly becoming enhanced by 15% by 24-Oct.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Oct
Speed: 308 km/sec Density: 9.2 p/cc Temp: 17700 K Bz: -6 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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