[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 16 October 23 issued 2331 UT on 16 Oct 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 17 10:31:07 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 OCTOBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 OCTOBER - 19 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Oct: 144/98
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Oct 18 Oct 19 Oct
Activity R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 16-Oct was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares, the largest of which was a C9.8
flare from an unnumbered active region beyond the eastern limb.
There are currently six numbered sunspot regions visible on the
solar disk. AR3465 (N10E05, beta) is the largest region and has
exhibited growth in its trailer spots over the UT day. AR3464
(N04W15, beta) has shown decay in its trailer spots. Newly numbered
AR3468 (S10E71, alpha) recently rotated over the eastern limb
and is stable. All other sunspot regions are either stable or
in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level over
17-19 Oct, with a chance of R1. An east-directed CME was observed,
visible in LASCO C2 and STEREO-A coronagraph imagery from 16/1200UT.
This CME is associated with a C7.5 flare from AR3467 (N14E42,
beta) and a filament eruption visible in H-alpha imagery at 16/1038UT.
Modelling indicates this CME contains an Earth-directed component,
with a minor glancing impact to Earth's magnetosphere on 20-Oct.
No other Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The solar wind
speed on UT day 16-Oct decreased, ranging from 315 to 390 km/s
and is currently near 325 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 4 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +3 to -2 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to increase over 17-19 Oct due to coronal hole high speed wind
stream effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 16 Oct : A K
Australian Region 2 21101000
Cocos Island 1 11101000
Darwin 2 21100001
Townsville 2 21101000
Learmonth 2 21101001
Alice Springs 1 11101000
Gingin 1 21001000
Canberra 0 11000000
Hobart 1 11100000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Oct :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 9 34421000
Mawson 6 41113000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 0000 0011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Oct 8 G0
18 Oct 10 G0, slight chance G1
19 Oct 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 16-Oct. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 17-19 Oct, with a slight chance of G1 conditions
on 18-Oct due to anticipated coronal hole high speed wind stream
effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were mostly normal on
16-Oct. Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 17-19 Oct. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Oct 149
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Enhanced by 80% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30-35% during local night and after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 104
Oct 98
Nov 96
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Oct 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
18 Oct 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
19 Oct 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 16-Oct were
enhanced by 15-40% in the Australian region. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 17-19
Oct. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Oct
Speed: 407 km/sec Density: 0.3 p/cc Temp: 57200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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