[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 17 October 23 issued 2330 UT on 17 Oct 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 18 10:30:10 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 OCTOBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 OCTOBER - 20 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Oct: 137/91
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Oct 19 Oct 20 Oct
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 17-Oct was at the R0 level,
with several low level C-class flares. There are currently four
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and two unnumbered
regions. AR3465 (N10W08, beta) is the largest region on the solar
disk and has shown slight decay over the UT day. Two unnumbered
regions are visible at S09W51 (alpha) and N29E78 (alpha) and
both appear stable. All other sunspot regions are either stable
or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level
over 18-20 Oct. A faint southward CME was observed, visible in
LASCO C2 and STEREO-A coronagraph imagery from 17/0548UT. This
CME is associated with a C2.2 flare at 17/0505UT from previously
numbered AR3463. Modelling indicates this low velocity CME is
Earth-directed, with a minor impact to Earth's magnetosphere
expected on 21-Oct. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been observed.
The solar wind speed on UT day 17-Oct decreased, ranging from
285 to 335 km/s and is currently near 285 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 3 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +2 to -1 nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to remain near background levels over 18-19 Oct then
increase on 20-Oct due to the expected arrival of a CME first
observed on 16-0ct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 17 Oct : A K
Australian Region 3 11000023
Cocos Island 4 01100033
Darwin 2 11000022
Townsville 5 11000024
Learmonth 3 01100023
Alice Springs 3 11000023
Gingin 2 00000023
Canberra 3 10000023
Hobart 0 0000000-
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Oct :
Macquarie Island 1 00000012
Casey 4 22100023
Mawson 4 33000002
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Oct :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 11 (Quiet)
Learmonth 10 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 8 (Quiet)
Gingin 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 2000 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Oct 5 G0
19 Oct 8 G0
20 Oct 14 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 17-Oct. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 18-20 Oct, with slightly elevated geomagnetic
activity expected on 20-Oct due to the arrival of a CME first
observed on 16-0ct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Oct Normal Normal Normal
19 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were mostly normal on
17-Oct. Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 18-20 Oct.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Oct 147
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night and after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 104
Oct 98
Nov 96
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Oct 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
19 Oct 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
20 Oct 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 17-Oct were
enhanced by 15-45% in the Australian region. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 18-20
Oct.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Oct
Speed: 347 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 39500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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