[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 15 October 23 issued 2330 UT on 15 Oct 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 16 10:30:57 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 OCTOBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 OCTOBER - 18 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Oct: 145/99
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Oct 17 Oct 18 Oct
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 140/94 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 15-Oct was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares. There are currently six numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3466 (N08W47, beta)
showed spot development over the UT day and has slightly increased
in magnetic complexity, but has not produced significant flaring
activity. AR3464 (N04W02, beta) and AR3465 (N10E18, beta) showed
development of trailer spots and are the largest sunspot regions
on the solar disk, although these have also been quiet in terms
of flaring. All other sunspot regions are in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be at the R0 level over 16-18 Oct, with a chance
of R1. No geoeffective CMEs were observed. A filament disappearance
is visible in H-Alpha imagery from 15/0153UT at around N00E22,
no associated CME is visible in coronagraph imagery. An eruption
is visible at around S25W40 from 15/1012UT in SDO, GOES SUVI
imagery. H-Alpha imagery shows the disappearance of a small filament
at around S24W36 associated with this eruption. No associated
CME is visible in available coronagraph imagery. A small eruption
is visible at around N08E02 from 15/1248UT in GOES SUVI and SDO
imagery, no associated CME is visible in available coronagraph
imagery. A filament eruption is visible in SDO and GOES SUVI
at around S22E65 from 15/1807UT. The filament is visible lifting
off in H-Alpha imagery from 15/1805UT off the eastern limb. There
is an image data gap in SOHO imagery between 15/1527UT and 15/2036UT
and in STEREO-A imagery from 15/1423UT and is ongoing. Based
on SOHO LASCO C3 imagery and radio spectrograph data, there does
not appear to be any geoeffective CMEs resulting from the eruptions
on 15-Oct. Further analysis will be performed when more imagery
becomes available. The solar wind speed on UT day 15-Oct decreased,
ranging from 474 to 360 km/s and is currently near 370 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 3
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +2 to -2
nT. The solar wind is expected to continue to decline towards
background levels over 16-Oct, an increase is expected on 17-Oct
due to high speed wind stream effects from a coronal hole approaching
a geoeffective location. Enhanced solar wind speed conditions
are expected on 18-Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 15 Oct : A K
Australian Region 1 11000111
Cocos Island 1 01000110
Darwin 2 11000112
Townsville 1 11000111
Learmonth 2 11110101
Alice Springs 1 00000111
Gingin 1 10000111
Canberra 1 01101101
Hobart 1 10101101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Oct :
Macquarie Island 1 00111000
Casey 7 33310211
Mawson 4 10110033
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 1112 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Oct 4 G0
17 Oct 10 G0, chance of G1
18 Oct 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 15-Oct. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 16-18 Oct, with a chance of G1 conditions on
17-Oct, due to anticipated coronal hole high speed wind stream
effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Oct Normal Normal Normal
17 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were mostly normal on
15-Oct. Normal HF propagation conditions are expected over 16-18
Oct, with the chance of mild degradations on 18-Oct due to possible
geomagnetic activity. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Oct 134
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 104
Oct 98
Nov 96
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Oct 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
17 Oct 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
18 Oct 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 15-Oct were
near predicted monthly values during local day in the Australian
region. Whilst enhancements of up to 20% were observed in the
Australian region during local night. Mild Spread F was observed
at Hobart during local night. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values to 15% enhanced over 16-18 Oct. Isolated minor
shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Oct
Speed: 497 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 99400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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