[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 14 October 23 issued 2330 UT on 14 Oct 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 15 10:30:10 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 OCTOBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 OCTOBER - 17 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Oct: 148/102
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Oct 16 Oct 17 Oct
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 14-Oct was at the R0 level,
with two strong C-class flares, a C9.8 at 14/0516UT and an C3.5
at 14/1632UT. There are currently seven numbered sunspot regions
visible on the solar disk. AR3463 (S17W04, beta), AR3465 (N10E31,
beta) and AR3466 (N08W34, beta) all exhibited development of
trailer spots. AR3460 (S11W56, beta) was responsible for the
largest flare of the day, but showed decay in its trailer spots.
Newly arrived region AR3467 (N14E68, beta) produced the C3.5
flare at 14/1632UT and is still too close to the eastern limb
to be completely confident of its beta magnetic characteristics.
There are no significantly magnetically complex sunspot regions
currently visible on the solar disk. All other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to
be at the R0 level over 15-17 Oct, with a chance of R1. Several
CMEs were observed, but none are considered geoeffective. A wide
north-northwest directed CME is visible in SOHO and STEREO-A
imagery from 14/0500UT. This may be associated with a filament
lift off visible in SDO and GOES SUVI imagery from 14/0339UT,
although H-Alpha imagery shows that the filament involved in
the lift off is very small and only a portion disappeared from
the surface. Modelling indicates this CME is not geoeffective.
A northwest directed, faint, slow CME is visible in SOHO imagery
from 14/1412UT. This may be associated with an on disk eruption
visible at around N18W30 from 14/1325UT in SDO, GOES SUVI and
H-Alpha imagery. Modelling indicates this CME has no geoeffective
component, however confidence is low due to no STEREO-A imagery.
The solar wind speed on UT day 13-Oct decreased, ranging from
548 to 456 km/s and is currently near 470 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +4 to -2 nT. The solar wind is expected
to remain moderately elevated over 15-Oct, with a declining trend
due to ongoing coronal hole high speed wind stream effects. The
solar wind speed is expected to be mostly at background speeds
over 16-17 Oct until an increase on 17-Oct due to high speed
wind stream effects from a narrow coronal hole, currently rotating
towards a geoeffective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 14 Oct : A K
Australian Region 6 22121131
Cocos Island 4 12111030
Darwin 4 22111121
Townsville 6 22121131
Learmonth 6 22221131
Alice Springs 4 22111021
Gingin 6 22221131
Canberra 3 12120021
Hobart 5 12221121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Oct :
Macquarie Island 4 12130020
Casey 13 34422132
Mawson 22 24332164
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12 1232 3432
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Oct 7 G0
16 Oct 5 G0
17 Oct 10 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 14-Oct. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of G2 at Mawson.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 15-17 Oct, with a
chance of G1 conditions on 17-Oct, due to anticipated coronal
hole high speed wind stream effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Oct Normal Normal Normal
16 Oct Normal Normal Normal
17 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were mostly normal on
14-Oct. Normal HF propagation conditions are expected over 15-17
Oct. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Oct 124
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 104
Oct 98
Nov 96
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Oct 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Oct 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
17 Oct 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 14-Oct were
near predicted monthly values in the Australian region, with
enhancements of up to 15% observed in the northern Australian
region during local night. Mild Spread F was observed at Hobart
during local night. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values to 15% enhanced over 15-17 Oct. Isolated minor shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Oct
Speed: 372 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 89800 K Bz: 5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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