[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 13 October 23 issued 2330 UT on 13 Oct 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 14 10:30:08 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 OCTOBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 OCTOBER - 16 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Oct: 149/104
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Oct 15 Oct 16 Oct
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 150/105 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 13-Oct was at the R0 level.
There are currently seven numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk. AR3465 (N10E45, beta) and AR3466 (N09W19, beta)
both exhibited development of trailer spots. AR3465 is the largest
visible sunspot region, but is magnetically simple. There are
no magnetically complex sunspot regions currently visible on
the solar disk. All other sunspot regions are either stable or
in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level over
14-16 Oct, with a chance of R1. Several CMEs were observed, but
none are considered geoeffective. A protracted, north directed,
CME is visible in SOHO imagery from 13/0842UT. This CME is associated
with a slow filament lift off visible off the northern limb in
GOES SUVI and SDO imagery from 13/0548UT. This CME is not considered
geoeffective. A series of narrow and faint CMEs were visible,
directed to the northwest over 13-Oct, there is no visible, associated,
on disk activity for these CMEs and they are not considered geoeffective.
The solar wind speed on UT day 13-Oct increased, ranging from
304 to 534 km/s and is currently near 490 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 24 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +22 to -13 nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to remain moderate to strong over 14-15 Oct due to
ongoing coronal hole high speed wind stream effects. A decline
is expected on 16-Oct, however a narrow coronal hole rotating
towards a geoeffective location may influence the solar wind
on 16-Oct, possibly resulting in an increase in speed.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Oct: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 13 Oct : A K
Australian Region 13 22333432
Cocos Island 11 12332431
Darwin 13 22333432
Townsville 16 23343432
Learmonth 15 22343432
Alice Springs 15 22343432
Gingin 11 22333331
Canberra 12 22333422
Hobart 11 12333421
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Oct :
Macquarie Island 11 02324420
Casey 25 45543323
Mawson 20 24523433
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 1000 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Oct 10 G0, chance of G1
15 Oct 10 G0, chance of G1
16 Oct 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 13-Oct. G1 conditions were observed at Casey
and Mawson, G0 conditions were observed at Macquarie Island.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 14-16 Oct, with a
chance of G1 conditions on 14-15 Oct, due to ongoing coronal
hole high speed wind stream effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were normal on 13-Oct.
Normal HF propagation conditions are expected over 14-16 Oct,
with a chance of mild degradations at high latitudes due to possible
geomagnetic activity on 14-15 Oct. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Oct 144
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 104
Oct 98
Nov 96
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Oct 140 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
15 Oct 140 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
16 Oct 140 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 13-Oct were
near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced in the northern
Australian region and 25-30% enhanced in the southern Australian
region. Spread F was observed at Hobart during local night. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
over 14-16 Oct. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Oct
Speed: 305 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 22300 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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