[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 12 October 23 issued 2330 UT on 12 Oct 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 13 10:30:55 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 OCTOBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 OCTOBER - 15 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Oct: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 0458UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Oct: 157/111
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Oct 14 Oct 15 Oct
Activity R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 156/110 155/109 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 12-Oct was at the R1 level,
due to an M1.1 flare at 12/0458UT from AR3451 (N16W97, beta).
AR3451 has now completely rotated over the western limb. There
are currently six numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar
disk. AR3464 (N04E39, beta) has exhibited spot development over
the UT day. AR3463 (S17E24, beta) has shown growth in its trailer
spots. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay.
Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level over 13-15 Oct,
with a chance of R1. Several CMEs were observed, but none are
considered geoeffective. An east-directed CME was observed, visible
in LASCO C2 and STEREO-A coronagraph imagery from 11/2336UT.
This CME is associated with activity visible in SDO imagery from
beyond the eastern limb and is not geoeffective. A north-directed
CME visible at 12/1800UT is also not considered to have an Earth-directed
component. The solar wind speed on UT day 12-Oct was mostly stable,
ranging from 280 to 340 km/s and is currently near 315 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +8 to -4
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain near background
levels over 13-15 Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 12 Oct : A K
Australian Region 2 21100111
Cocos Island 1 11100110
Darwin 3 21100112
Townsville 3 21110111
Learmonth 3 22100112
Alice Springs 2 21000112
Gingin 2 21100002
Canberra 1 11000011
Hobart 1 11000011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Oct :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 6 33300102
Mawson 3 32100010
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 3 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1101 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Oct 5 G0
14 Oct 5 G0
15 Oct 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 12-Oct. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 13-15 Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Oct Normal Normal Normal
14 Oct Normal Normal Normal
15 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were normal on 12-Oct.
Normal HF propagation conditions are expected over 13-15 Oct.
Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Oct 138
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30-35% during local night and after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 104
Oct 98
Nov 96
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Oct 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
14 Oct 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
15 Oct 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 12-Oct were
near predicted monthly values to 15-30% enhanced in the Australian
region. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to 15% enhanced over 13-15 Oct. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Oct
Speed: 287 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 18700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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