[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 11 October 23 issued 2331 UT on 11 Oct 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 12 10:31:06 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 OCTOBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 OCTOBER - 14 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Oct: 158/112
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Oct 13 Oct 14 Oct
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 158/112 156/110 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 11-Oct was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares. There are currently nine numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3451 (N17W85, beta)
was responsible for the largest flare of the UT day and is currently
rotating over the western limb. AR3463 (S17E36, beta-gamma) has
exhibited spot development over the UT day. AR3462 (N19E26, beta-gamma),
AR3464 (N04E51, beta-gamma) and AR3465 (N10E71, beta-gamma) have
all developed beta-gamma magnetic complexities but were all mostly
stable over the UT day. AR3461 (N13W05, beta) and AR3466 (N09E07,
beta) have both shown spot growth over the 24-hour period. All
other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 12-14 Oct. No Earth-directed
CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 11-Oct
increased, ranging from 265 to 330 km/s and is currently near
305 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+4 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to increase over
12-14 Oct due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 11 Oct : A K
Australian Region 2 11101201
Cocos Island 1 11101100
Darwin 3 12001112
Townsville 3 11111211
Learmonth 3 11101212
Alice Springs 2 01001201
Gingin 3 11101202
Canberra 1 01101100
Hobart 2 01111200
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Oct :
Macquarie Island 0 01010000
Casey 6 23321101
Mawson 7 22112114
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0 1111 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Oct 10 G0
13 Oct 8 G0
14 Oct 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 11-Oct. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 12-14 Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were normal on 11-Oct.
Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected over 12-14
Oct. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Oct 141
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25-30% during local night and after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 104
Oct 98
Nov 96
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Oct 140 15 to 25% above predicted monthly values
13 Oct 140 15 to 25% above predicted monthly values
14 Oct 140 15 to 25% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 104 was issued on
10 October and is current for 11-12 Oct. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 11-Oct were enhanced by 15-30% in the Australian
region. MUFs are expected to be 15-25% enhanced over 12-14 Oct.
Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Oct
Speed: 325 km/sec Density: 0.3 p/cc Temp: 50700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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