[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 10 October 23 issued 2331 UT on 10 Oct 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 11 10:31:03 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 OCTOBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 OCTOBER - 13 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Oct: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.6 0209UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M2.3 1217UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Oct: 164/118
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Oct 12 Oct 13 Oct
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 160/114 158/112
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 10-Oct was at the R1 level,
with an M1.6 flare at 10/0209UT and an M2.3 flare at 10/1217UT.
There are currently eight numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk and one unnumbered region. AR3451 (N17W71, beta-delta)
remains the most significant sunspot region on the solar disk,
being responsible for both M-class flares of the UT day, despite
displaying minor sunspot decay. This region is likely to remain
significant until it rotates off the solar disk on 12-Oct. AR3460
(S08W02, beta-gamma-delta), AR3462 (N19E40, beta), AR3463 (S17E50,
beta) and newly numbered region AR3464 (N04E64, beta), all displayed
sunspot development over the UT day, with AR3460 being the largest
and most complex and AR3462 showing the most significant development.
However, all of these regions have been quiet in terms of flaring
activity. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay.
An unnumbered region has recently rotated onto the solar disk
at around N10 on the eastern limb. The spot is very foreshortened
and partially still behind the limb, so its magnetic characteristics
cannot currently be determined. Solar activity is expected to
be at R0-R1 levels over 11-12 Oct and at the R0 level with a
chance of R1 on 13-Oct. No geoeffective CMEs were observed over
10-Oct. A fast, partial halo CME, directed to the east, is visible
in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery from 10/1024UT. A small eruption
on the limb is visible in SDO imagery from 10/0947UT at around
N12. Additionally, coronal dimming/coronal movement is visible
behind the eastern limb in SDO and GOES SUVI imagery from 10/0940UT.
This CME is considered to be a far-side event and not geoeffective.
The solar wind speed on UT day 10-Oct decreased slightly before
a period of fluctuation from 10/1945UT onwards. The wind speed
ranged from 263 to 382 km/s and is currently near 360 km/s. The
peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and
the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +5 to -2 nT. A increase
in the solar wind speed is expected on 11-Oct due to a pair of
coronal holes which are in or are soon to be in geoeffective
positions. Enhanced solar wind speed is expected on 12-Oct, with
a decrease possible on 13-Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 10 Oct : A K
Australian Region 2 12100001
Cocos Island 1 11110000
Darwin 2 12100001
Townsville 2 12100111
Learmonth 2 22110001
Alice Springs 2 12100001
Gingin 2 22100000
Canberra 1 12000000
Hobart 2 12110000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Oct :
Macquarie Island 1 11010000
Casey 8 34320011
Mawson 6 23221112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0 2122 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Oct 10 G0, chance of G1
12 Oct 10 G0, chance of G1
13 Oct 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 10-Oct. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 11-13 Oct, with a chance of G1 over 11-12 Oct,
due to high speed wind stream effects from a pair of coronal
holes rotating towards a geoeffective position.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were normal on 10-Oct.
Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected over 11-13
Oct. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Oct 129
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 104
Oct 98
Nov 96
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Oct 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
12 Oct 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
13 Oct 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 104 was issued on
10 October and is current for 11-12 Oct. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 10-Oct were near predicted monthly values in
the southern Australian region and near predicted monthly values
to 30% enhanced in the northern Australian region, with most
enhancements occurring during local night hours. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 11-13
Oct. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Oct
Speed: 340 km/sec Density: 7.4 p/cc Temp: 21400 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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