[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 09 October 23 issued 2330 UT on 09 Oct 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 10 10:30:09 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 OCTOBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 OCTOBER - 12 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Oct: 166/120
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Oct 11 Oct 12 Oct
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 156/110 156/110 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 9-Oct was at the R0 level,
with several high C-class flares. There are currently ten numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3451 (N17W57, beta-delta)
is the most magnetically complex region and has shown spot growth
in its intermediate spots over the UT day. This region was also
responsible for the highest four C-class flares on 9-Oct. AR3460
(S08E10, beta-gamma) also displayed spot development and is magnetically
complex, but has yet to produce noteworthy flaring activity.
All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar
activity is expected to be at the R0 level over 10-12 Oct, with
a chance of R1. No geoeffective CMEs were observed over 9-Oct.
A northeast directed, narrow CME is visible from 9/0512UT in
SOHO and STEREO-A imagery. Associated coronal dimming is visible
in SDO and GOES SUVI imagery from 9/0440UT off the eastern limb.
This CME is considered to be a far-side event and not geoeffective.
The solar wind speed on UT day 9-Oct increased slightly, ranging
from 307 to 361 km/s and is currently near 350 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +3 to -6 nT. A sustained
period of -Bz was observed from around 9/0630UT to around 9/1600UT.
The solar wind speed is expected to remain light over 10-Oct
until an increase due to high speed wind stream effects from
an equatorial coronal hole, which is rotating towards a geoeffective
position. Enhanced solar wind speeds are expected over 11-Oct,
with a decrease possible on 12-Oct.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 09 Oct : A K
Australian Region 6 22221222
Cocos Island 4 12211220
Darwin 6 22221222
Townsville 7 12222232
Learmonth 7 22221232
Alice Springs 6 22221222
Gingin 6 22221221
Canberra 5 12211222
Hobart 6 12221222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Oct :
Macquarie Island 11 02234421
Casey 11 24421222
Mawson 17 33223542
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0 2222 3332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Oct 10 G0, slight chance of G1
11 Oct 10 G0, slight chance of G1
12 Oct 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 9-Oct. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 10-12 Oct, with a slight chance of G1 over 10-11 Oct, due
to high speed wind stream effects from an equatorial coronal
hole rotating towards a geoeffective position.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were normal on 9-Oct.
Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected over 10-12
Oct. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Oct 139
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 104
Oct 98
Nov 96
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Oct 140 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
11 Oct 140 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
12 Oct 140 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 9-Oct were
near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced in the Australian
region, with the majority of enhancements occurring during local
night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to 20% enhanced over 10-12 Oct. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Oct
Speed: 317 km/sec Density: 6.1 p/cc Temp: 20700 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list