[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 08 October 23 issued 2330 UT on 08 Oct 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 9 10:30:10 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 OCTOBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 OCTOBER - 11 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Oct: 157/111
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Oct 10 Oct 11 Oct
Activity R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 158/112 160/114 158/112
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 08-Oct was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares. There are currently eight numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3451 (N17W39, beta-delta)
is the most magnetically complex region on the solar disk and
has shown spot growth in its intermediate spots over the UT day.
AR3460 (S08E27, gamma) has exhibited spot development over the
24-hour period. Newly numbered regions AR3461 (N10E47, alpha)
and AR3462 (N19E67, alpha) are so far magnetically simple and
unremarkable. All other sunspot regions are either stable or
in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level over
09-11 Oct, with a chance of R1. Several CMEs were observed, but
none are considered geoeffective. A northeast-directed CME was
observed, visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery from 08/0336UT.
This CME has no clear on-disk source and is considered a farside
event. A west-directed CME was observed at 08/1853UT, with an
eruption source on the limb visible in SDO imagery. This CME
is slow and not considered to be Earth-directed. The solar wind
speed on UT day 08-Oct was mostly stable, ranging from 295 to
355 km/s and is currently near 325 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +5 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain near background levels on 09-Oct. A narrow coronal
hole extending from the solar equator to ~S20 is expected to
increase the solar wind speed over 10-11 Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 08 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 22210122
Cocos Island 4 22110122
Darwin 5 12111123
Townsville 7 12221223
Learmonth 6 22110223
Alice Springs 4 22210112
Gingin 4 22110122
Canberra 4 12210112
Hobart 4 12210212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Oct :
Macquarie Island 4 12221012
Casey 9 23321223
Mawson 19 55332123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0 2100 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Oct 6 G0
10 Oct 10 G0
11 Oct 12 G0, slight chance G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 08-Oct. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 09-11 Oct, with a slight chance of G1 on 11-Oct due to coronal
hole high speed wind stream effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Oct Normal Normal Normal
10 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were normal on 08-Oct.
Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected over 09-11
Oct. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Oct 142
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 104
Oct 98
Nov 96
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Oct 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 Oct 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
11 Oct 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 08-Oct were
near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced in the Australian
region. Spread F was observed at Hobart during local night hours.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted values to 15% enhanced
over 09-11 Oct. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Oct
Speed: 366 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 19400 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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