[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 07 October 23 issued 2330 UT on 07 Oct 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 8 10:30:54 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 OCTOBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 OCTOBER - 10 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Oct: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.7 1806UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Oct: 157/111
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Oct 09 Oct 10 Oct
Activity R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 156/110 158/112 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 07-Oct was at the R1 level,
due to an M1.7 flare at 07/1806UT from AR3460 (S11E38, beta).
There are currently eight numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk and one unnumbered region. AR3452 (N12W33, beta-gamma)
has shown spot development in its trailer spots whilst its leader
spots have decayed. AR3451 (N17W31, beta-gamma) has exhibited
growth in its intermediate spots over the UT day. AR3458 (N15W23,
alpha) has shown some recent minor spot growth. Newly numbered
AR3460 has shown rapid growth since appearing on the solar disk.
An unnumbered region is visible near N13E57 (alpha) and appears
stable. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay.
Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level over 08-10 Oct,
with a chance of R1. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed.
The solar wind speed on UT day 07-Oct decreased, ranging from
310 to 380 km/s and is currently near 320 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +5 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to remain near background levels over 08-09 Oct.
A coronal hole extending from the solar equator to ~S20 is now
crossing the central meridian and may influence the solar wind
speed on 10-Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 07 Oct : A K
Australian Region 3 22100121
Cocos Island 3 22100120
Darwin 6 23211122
Townsville 6 23211121
Learmonth 5 32200122
Alice Springs 4 22110121
Gingin 3 22100021
Canberra 2 12100011
Hobart 2 12100011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Oct :
Macquarie Island 0 01100000
Casey 4 23210011
Mawson 8 23200034
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9 2231 3223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Oct 6 G0
09 Oct 6 G0
10 Oct 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 07-Oct. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 08-10 Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Oct Normal Normal Normal
09 Oct Normal Normal Normal
10 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were normal on 07-Oct.
Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected over 08-10
Oct. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Oct 140
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 90% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15-20% during local day and after local dawn.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 104
Oct 98
Nov 96
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Oct 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 Oct 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 Oct 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 07-Oct were
15-30% enhanced in the Australian region. Spread F was observed
at Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted values to 15% enhanced over 08-10 Oct. Isolated minor
shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Oct
Speed: 419 km/sec Density: 10.8 p/cc Temp: 61900 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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