[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 06 October 23 issued 2331 UT on 06 Oct 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 7 10:31:12 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 OCTOBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 OCTOBER - 09 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Oct: 155/109
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Oct 08 Oct 09 Oct
Activity R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 156/110 156/110 158/112
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 06-Oct was at the R0 level,
with several low level C-class flares. There are currently eight
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered
region. AR3451 (N17W18, beta-gamma) is the largest region on
the solar disk and has decayed over the UT day. AR3452 (N12W20,
beta) has shown growth in its trailer spots whilst its leading
spots have decayed. AR3454 (S14E01, beta-gamma) and AR3459 (N10E53,
beta) have both exhibited spot growth over the 24-hour period.
An unnumbered region is visible near N28E15 (beta) and has exhibited
minor growth since appearing on the solar disk. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be at the R0 level over 07-09 Oct, with a chance of R1. No
Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed
on UT day 06-Oct decreased, ranging from 380 to 480 km/s and
is currently near 400 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +7 to -7 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to decline to near background levels over 07-09 Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 06 Oct : A K
Australian Region 8 23221213
Cocos Island 5 22221112
Darwin 6 22221113
Townsville 9 23221214
Learmonth 10 23222214
Alice Springs 8 23221213
Gingin 6 22211203
Canberra 6 13221103
Hobart 7 23212103
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Oct :
Macquarie Island 7 13312202
Casey 17 55331112
Mawson 13 34322233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 12 (Quiet)
Hobart 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 17 3523 3232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Oct 8 G0
08 Oct 6 G0
09 Oct 6 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 60 was issued on 5 October
and is current for 6-7 Oct. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 06-Oct. Mostly G0 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated
period of G1 observed at Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions are
expected over 07-09 Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Oct Normal Normal Normal
09 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were normal on 06-Oct.
Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected over 07-09
Oct. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Oct 152
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20-25% during local day and after local dawn.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day and night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 104
Oct 98
Nov 96
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Oct 150 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
08 Oct 150 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
09 Oct 150 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 06-Oct were
25-60% enhanced in the Australian region. MUFs are expected to
be near predicted values to 25% enhanced over 07-09 Oct. Isolated
minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Oct
Speed: 453 km/sec Density: 5.8 p/cc Temp: 177000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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